The Trail 2016: Fight night

by Jonathan Easley - 09/26/16 5:00 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

Tonight’s event hardly needs an introduction, but here is one anyway.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, two of the most famous people in the world and the two most unpopular presidential candidates in modern times, will square off at the first presidential debate tonight at Hofstra University on Long Island.

The spectacle of a celebrity businessman and the first woman nominee of a major party going one-on-one is expected to shatter debate records and potentially attract 100 million viewers. That’s Super Bowl-level of interest.

The stakes could scarcely be higher, as a raft of new national polls released Monday show the candidates running even. The race is also close in the battleground states, with polls out of Colorado and Pennsylvania sure to set off alarm bells among Clinton supporters.

The Democrat once led comfortable in both states, but Trump has nearly pulled even and essentially wiped out Clinton’s once substantial advantage in the Electoral College.

The race is a toss-up and Monday’s debate will go a long way in shaping the contours of the final 42 days before the election.

The Hill’s Jonathan Easley has five things to watch for tonight – anchor Lester Holt and the candidate’s body language are among them.

Speaking of Holt, here are five things a Democrat wants him to ask Trump, and five things a Republican wants to see him ask Clinton.

The Hill’s Lisa Hagen has the nuts and bolts for tonight’s debate.

Stream the debate live from The Hill and stay with The Hill all night for breaking news and analysis on this historic event. Come back in the morning and we’ll pick up the pieces.

RACE TO 1600 PENN (Debate edition)

EXPECTATIONS GAME: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: A top Clinton aide says he expects to see a subdued Trump on Monday night. They’re urging pundits not to shower Trump with praise just because he shows improvement.

LESTER HOLT (R-MODERATOR): The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Donald Trump’s campaign manager says the GOP nominee didn’t lie about Holt being a Democrat because he was unaware of the moderator’s party affiliation.

FRIENDLY CROWD: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: The Clinton campaign will have a number of special guests on hand Monday night, including billionaire Trump critic Mark Cuban. The Hill’s Joe Concha argues that Cuban should be banned.

UNSOLICITED ADVICE: The Hill’s Joe Concha reports: MSNBC is catching flak for its debate advice to Clinton and Trump.

FACT CHECK: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Bloomberg will be correcting the candidates in real time as they debate on Monday night.

SOCIAL WARS: The Hill’s David McCabe reports: Donald Trump has hit Clinton with a “Crooked Hillary” Snapchat filter ahead of the debate. A pro-Clinton super-PAC is hitting back with the hashtag “StopTheTrumpTrain.” Trump is leading in Facebook chatter.

ODDS AND ENDS

NOT RIGGED: The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports: State officials are reassuring members of Congress that the integrity of November’s elections is secure amid growing concerns over cyberattacks by foreign actors tied to Russia.

VOTER ID LAW BLOCKED: The Hill’s Lydia Wheeler reports: The nation’s second-most-powerful court on Monday blocked a federal election commission’s move to approve proof-of-citizenship requirements when registering to vote in Alabama, Georgia and Kansas.

MEA CULPA: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: The recriminations over Ted Cruz’s endorsement of Donald Trump continued Monday, with Glenn Beck saying he misjudged the Texas senator.

BLAME THE MEDIA: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters on Monday accused the media of ginning up the debate over Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s low trustworthy numbers.

POLL POSITION

ALL OVER THE PLACE: The Hill’s Vicki Needham reports: A new election forecasting model from Moody’s Analytics has Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide with 332 electoral votes. But one of Nate Silver’s new forecasts finds that if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be favored.

NATIONAL TOSS-UP: The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports: A number of new national polls released on Monday show Trump and Clinton running neck and neck.

BATTLEGROUNDS TOSS-UP: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: New battleground polls show the presidential race tightening, particularly in Colorado and Pennsylvania, where Clinton once led comfortable. The race is also close in Florida, North Carolina and Iowa, new polls find. Clinton’s lead in Virginia looks safe for now.

THE DAILY TRUMP

NOT INVITED: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: A Civil Rights museum in North Carolina rejected a request to visit from Trump’s campaign, saying his staffers were rude and demanding.

#2016: The Hill’s Caitlin Yilek reports: Some guy who walks around naked but with a cowboy hat and calls himself The Naked Cowboy endorsed Trump on Monday by serenading him outside of Trump Tower.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I wouldn’t have somebody on that’s so mentally challenged. And you can print that.”

— Comedian Zach Galifianakis on why he has no plans to to invite Trump to his hit “Between Two Ferns” show after Clinton appeared last week.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

TARHEEL TOSS-UP: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) is edging Democratic challenger Deborah Ross in North Carolina, a new poll finds.

INCUMBENT ADVANTAGE: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) looks safe in Iowa, opening up a 17 point advantage over his Democratic rival

MONEY WATCH

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: Time reports: Donald Trump could profit as president by promoting his business holdings.

FINGERS CROSSED: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Donald Trump says he hopes his charitable foundation has not run afoul of the law.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

(All times Eastern)

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will participate in the first presidential debate at 9 p.m. on Monday night at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

Tim Kaine will watch the debate at a LGBT party with the Human Rights Campaign in Orlando, Fla. beginning at 8 p.m. He will stay in Orlando on Tuesday for canvassing events beginning at 9:15 a.m..

Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and his running mate Bill Weld will conduct a Facebook Live event at 6 p.m. and will live-tweet the debate from Twitter’s headquarters in New York City.

On Tuesday, Clinton will hold a rally in Raleigh, N.C. at 11 a.m. Bill Clinton hold a voter registration drive in Toledo, Ohio, at noon.

Trump will hold a rally in Melbourne, Fla., at 7 p.m.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Tonight’s biggest post #debate question: Inquiring American minds will want to know,
was Hillary on her meds or off her meds?

— Steve King (@SteveKingIA) September 26, 2016