The Trail 2016: Just a little kick

by Jonathan Easley - 09/29/16 5:34 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

The data is far from conclusive, but early returns suggest Hillary Clinton is getting a small bump in the polls from her showing at Monday night’s debate against Donald Trump.

Or as pollster John Zogby described it, “just a little kick.”

Pollsters caution that it’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the long-term impact of the debate, and note the movement in Clinton’s direction has been modest.

But data experts say Clinton has at the very least reestablished herself as the front-runner after the race had tightened almost to the point of a toss-up.

They expect the media reaction to the debate, coupled with Trump’s post-debate stumbles into controversy, will ensure Clinton carries that lead into the weekend when the major polling outlets begin unveiling their latest numbers.

Read the full story from The Hill’s Jonathan Easley to get GOP polling expert Frank Luntz’s take, and to see how the election experts view everything from the importance of the first debate to whether Trump’s dominance in the first half-hour of the debate matters at all.

And check back in the morning for a dispatch from The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Jonathan Easley on the Clinton campaign’s tv advertising strategy. They’ve swamped the airwaves with attack ads against Trump so far, but that could change as they seek to make Clinton a more appealing candidate in her own right.

And Niall Stanage will have a story on how Trump can come back. Of course, you’ll want to stay dialed-in with us through the weekend for breaking news on these and everything related to 2016. 40 more days.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

WATER IS NICE, COME ON IN: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Thursday unveiled endorsements from 40 high-profile Republicans.

EVERYTHING IS RIGGED: The Hill’s Nikita Vladimirov reports: Donald Trump on Thursday said that the first presidential debate of 2016 against Hillary Clinton was “a rigged deal.”

ROUND TWO: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Donald Trump’s campaign may let New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) lead the Republican nominee’s preparations for his second presidential debate with Hillary Clinton.

MIND GAMES: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Hillary Clinton believes the presence of Mark Cuban “unsettled” Donald Trump at the presidential debate on Monday

ODDS AND ENDS

FINALS SHOWDOWN: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are both expected to speak next month at the annual Al Smith Dinner in New York just one day after their final debate-stage clash.

GAFFE DOUBLE-DOWN: The Hill’s Caitlin Yilek reports: Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson says he’s still having a hard time coming up with a foreign leader he admires.

CHYRON BIAS: The Hill’s Joe Concha reports: CNN aired an onscreen graphic on Thursday asking why Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson was still in the presidential race.

POLL POSITION

RESULTS ARE IN: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by single digits in five critical battleground states, according to post-debate polls for each battleground.

THE DAILY TRUMP

BAD FOR BUSINESS: The Hill’s Nikita Vladimirov reports: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump allegedly wanted to fire unattractive female employees at one of his golf resorts, according to a 2012 lawsuit.

FRIENDLY FIRE: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Marco Rubio says Donald Trump’s past business operations in Cuba trouble him. The Trump campaign is pushing back, saying his actions weren’t “treasonous.”

HOT SEAT: The Hill’s Neetzan Zimmerman reports: Fox News host Megyn Kelly repeatedly challenged Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, about controversies involving the Republican presidential nominee and his treatment of women in a testy exchange on Wednesday night’s “Kelly File.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It’s amazing when you hear her talk about sexism and these various claims, which are ridiculous. Aside from obviously Bill, her husband, being maybe the worst that’s ever lived.”

— Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump attacking Bill Clinton as sexist.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

ELECTION YEAR POLITICS: The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports: Senate Democratic leaders have discouraged their colleagues throughout this year from working with vulnerable Republican senators, according to lawmakers in both parties.

COATTAILS: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Rep. Frank Guinta is taking a different approach than other vulnerable GOP incumbents, who are keeping their party’s presidential nominee at arm’s length: He’s openly embracing Donald Trump.

MONEY WATCH

HIGH ROLLERS: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: The largest super PAC supporting HIllary Clinton’s presidential campaign is putting $10 million behind a TV ad hitting Donald Trump for mocking a reporter with a disability.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY, TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND

(All times Eastern)

Donald Trump holds a rally at 5 p.m. Friday in Novi, Mich. On Saturday, he’ll hold a rally in Manheim, Pa., at 7 p.m.

Mike Pence holds a rally in Fort Wayne, Ind., at noon on Friday.

Hillary Clinton campaigns in Fort Pierce, Fla., at 11:30 Friday, then travels to South Florida for a campaign event in Coral Springs at 3:30 p.m. Daughter Chelsea Clinton will campaign in Green Bay, Wis., at 12:30 p.m.

Tim Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, campaigns in Charles City, Iowa, at 12:30 p.m. and in Mason City, Iowa, at 2:30 p.m.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) debate each other Friday morning, while Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt (R) Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) and three third-party candidates participate in a candidates’ forum on Friday afternoon.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Oh my God!!!
I’m getting a pony!
Thank you, Mister Trump!@realDonaldTrump
https://t.co/M5s4KlD8iQ

— Chely Wright (@chelywright) September 29, 2016

“You have 40 days until the election. You have 40 days to make every dream you ever dreamed for your country come true.” – Trump

— Katy Tur (@KatyTurNBC) September 29, 2016