OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Debate fallout edition

by Emily Goodin, Cameron Joseph, Alexandra Jaffe, and Justin Sink - 10/17/12 10:41 PM ET

There were 7.2 million tweets during the second presidential debate on Tuesday night — fewer than the 10 million tweets during the first presidential debate in Denver, according to Twitter.

{mosads}”Binders” was trending on Twitter until late Wednesday morning, thanks to Romney’s reference to “binders full of women” during the debate.

TOMORROW’S AGENDA TODAY: President Obama will hold a campaign rally in Manchester at 11:35 a.m. He’ll then travel to New York City to tape an appearance on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” and deliver remarks at the 67th Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner.

Mitt Romney will also address the dinner.

Former President Bill Clinton and singer Bruce Springsteen will hold a campaign rally for Obama in Parma, Ohio. In addition, Clinton will campaign in Steubenville, Ohio, and Springsteen will campaign in Ames, Iowa.

Vice President Biden will hold a campaign rally in Las Vegas at 11 a.m.

Paul Ryan will be campaigning in Florida with a rally in Ocala at 12:40 p.m. and one in Fort Myers at 7:15 p.m.

Ann Romney will appear on ABC’s “The View.”

Rick Santorum will be campaigning for Romney in North Carolina. Craig Romney will be campaigning in Colorado. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) will campaign for Romney in Michigan.

TWEET OF THE DAY: “Catching some of the #Browns practice in Berea today w/@condoleezzarice & @PaulRyanVP” — Sen. Paul Portman (R-Ohio)

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I love these debates. These things are great.” – Mitt Romney

POLL POSITION:

Mitt Romney picked up 2 points overnight among likely voters and now holds a 6-percentage point lead nationally over President Obama, according to Gallup’s daily tracking poll. Romney takes 51 percent support against 45 percent for Obama in the Gallup poll of likely voters, and also leads 48 to 46 percent among registered voters.

Obama’s double-digit lead has vanished in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll. Obama leads with 49 percent support over Romney at 48 percent.

AD WATCH:

Mitt Romney’s campaign unveiled a new television ad highlighting the GOP nominee’s attacks on President Obama’s economic record during the second presidential debate.

Romney looked to parlay his debate-night story of seeking out female Cabinet members during his tenure as governor of Massachusetts into a new push for women voters in a Web video emailed to supporters.

The main Democratic super-PACs targeting hotly contested House and Senate races released a new spate of ads, intensifying their efforts three weeks before Election Day. Majority PAC, which is working to defend the Democrats’ Senate majority, launched an $8.4 million blitz in Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Ohio, Connecticut and Nevada, all states in which the group has spent before.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE:

The Hill offers its list of the 50 races to watch this cycle. Check it out here.

Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.) looks like a sure bet to head the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) next year.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting Colorado Reps. Mike Coffman and Scott Tipton on women’s issues and Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy on taxes with new ads. The attack on Tipton is the DCCC’s first ad in that race.

CALIFORNIA: Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.) is running television ads painting opponent Rep. Brad Sherman (D) as “unhinged” and “angry” after an officer had to step in to diffuse a confrontation between the two at a debate last week.

CALIFORNIA: A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Democratic group Democracy for America puts Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) neck and neck with Democrat Raul Ruiz, taking 47 percent support to his 46 percent support.

ILLINOIS: A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee puts Democrat David Gill ahead of Republican Rodney Davis by 6 points in Illinois’s 13th District, with 43 percent support to Davis’s 37 percent support. In Illinois’s 10th district, another DCCC poll offers a much closer race, with Democrat Brad Schneider leading Rep. Bob Dold (R) by just 1 point.

NORTH CAROLINA: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) is hitting Republican David Rouzer for his support for “a plan to dismantle Medicare” that features seniors questioning Rouzer’s position, with one saying “Mr. Rouzer, keep your hands off my Medicare.”

TENNESSEE: The Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais says the contest has become a “dead heat” following news that the Tennessee physician had an affair with a patient and urged her to get an abortion. DesJarlais has been a heavy favorite to win a second term against Democratic state Sen. Eric Stewart. But poll numbers released by Stewart’s campaign indicate the Democrat has pulled to within 5 points in the wake of the scandal — a statistical tie based on the 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

SENATE SHOWDOWN:

The Club for Growth launched a $1.5 million ad buy targeting Democrats Richard Carmona in Arizona and Rep. Joe Donnelly in Indiana for what the ads charge is their defense of and record in wasteful spending and earmarks. The conservative group endorsed both Republican candidates in those races during their primaries.

ARIZONA: Rep. Jeff Flake’s (R) campaign released a new ad featuring a female veteran defending him against attacks from Democrats that he’s failed to support veterans in Congress. Women’s and veterans’ issues have become central concerns in the Arizona Senate race, and Flake’s ad does double duty in using a woman to come to his defense.

CONNECTICUT: The Connecticut Senate race remains in a statistical dead-heat, with Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Republican Linda McMahon by only 2 points in a new poll. Murphy has 46 percent support to McMahon’s 44 percent support in the Siena poll, with 8 percent of likely voters still undecided.

INDIANA: Sen. Dick Lugar’s (R-Ind.) office is firing back against a mail piece from a super-PAC backing Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock‘s (R) Senate campaign. The group, which also worked to help Mourdock beat Lugar in the primary, sent a mail piece saying “Indiana’s Lugar Backs Mourdock in Senate Run.” Lugar’s office disagreed. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is out with a new ad using clips of Mitt Romney and President Clinton talking about the need for bipartisanship to hit Mourdock for his stated opposition go bipartisan compromise.

MASSACHUSETTS: Democrat Elizabeth Warren released a new ad that features a local carpenter, Richard Brow, highlighting Sen. Scott Brown‘s (R) record on jobs in Massachusetts. It charges that Brown voted against a number of jobs bills and to protect taxes for millionaires, and features Brow walking and chatting alongside Warren. Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey, conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, gave Warren a 9-point lead on Brown.

MISSOURI: Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) political action committee released a new ad this week accusing Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) of being a rubber stamp for sending foreign aid to countries with anti-American interests.

MONTANA: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) holds a narrow lead over Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) in a new poll conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, a group backing Tester. The poll had him up by 46 to 44 percent. While partisan polls should be viewed with some skepticism, this is in line with nearly every other poll of the race showing the two neck and neck.

NEBRASKA: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) endorsed former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D).

NEVADA: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a new ad targeting Sen. Dean Heller‘s record on school funding and his position in favor of cutting the Department of Education. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) also released a new ad attempting to appeal to seniors by charging that, because of his vote for Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget — which the ad charges will end Medicare — he’s “really not for you.”

PENNSYLVANIA: Republican Tom Smith released an ad charging that Sen. Bob Casey (D) voted to cut Medicar, in which he appears at the end insisting he’d protect it, with his mother in the ad to back him up.

WISCONSIN: Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) still leads opponent Tommy Thompson (R) in a new
internal poll her campaign released, but her support shrank
slightly, down from 50 percent in September to 48 percent this month.
Thompson brings in 44 percent support in the poll. Another independent
poll, conducted by Marquette Law School, puts Thompson two points ahead
of her, with 46 percent to her 44 percent support — a reversal from the
previous poll, where Baldwin led Thompson by 4 points.

Thompson spent Wednesday with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) in Green Bay, and both sides debuted new ads in the state, and his campaign is out with an ad describing him as the “architect” of adding prescription drug benefit coverage to Medicare and accuses Baldwin of voting to cut Medicare funding. Meanwhile, Crossroads GPS is spending $1.2 million on a new ad attacking Baldwin for supporting “extreme tax increases” during her time in Congress.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is forming a super-PAC to spend some of his personal fortune helping centrist candidates win election to Congress.

Obama traveling press secretary Jen Psaki said the campaign was “absolutely not” giving up efforts in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, three battleground states where the president has slipped behind Mitt Romney.

Please send tips and comments to Emily Goodin, egoodin@digital-stage.thehill.com; Cameron Joseph, cjoseph@digital-stage.thehill.com; Alexandra Jaffe, ajaffe@digital-stage.thehill.com, and Justin Sink, jsink@digital-stage.thehill.com

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