What Biden’s approval rating says about Democrats’ chances in the 2022 midterms

Democrats are facing the headwinds of history as they race to save their narrow House and Senate majorities later this year — even before they factor in the challenges of an out-of-control pandemic and rising inflation.

 

That’s because voters typically punish the party in power when a new president faces his first midterm election. In the past century, the president’s party has picked up seats in midterm elections only twice, in 1934 and 2002.

 

In both of those occasions, the incumbent president — Franklin Roosevelt and George W. Bush — were hugely popular. Roosevelt had guided the country through the end of the Depression, and Bush was riding a tide of patriotism after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

 

That’s not the case today — and in fact, President Biden’s approval ratings look more like those of Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama or Donald Trump, all of whom saw their parties suffer steep losses in midterm elections.

 

Democrats need Biden to be popular if they have any hope of retaining their slim majorities. There’s plenty of time left before voters start voting, but history is not on their side.