House Republicans are eyeing reforms to Social Security and Medicare if they retake the lower chamber in November, but they’re charting a cautious path when it comes to disclosing details on how they will change the programs in the final stretch to the midterm elections.
They’re also keeping a safe distance from a proposal crafted by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the head of the chamber’s campaign arm, which calls for reigning in government spending — a blueprint that sparked backlash from Democrats and some Republicans.
Instead, House Republicans are pointing to their midterm messaging and policy platform, dubbed the “Commitment to America,” which vows to “Save and strengthen Social Security and Medicare,” with no specifics.
“I don’t know what Rick Scott’s plan is, we have the Commitment to America where we secure, strengthen and save Medicare,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told The Hill last month.
“I have not heard anybody on Ways and Means talk about the Rick Scott plan,” Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), who sits on the tax-writing committee that has jurisdiction over Social Security and Medicare, said.
Scott created a buzz in February when he released an 11-point plan to “Rescue America,” outlining his vision for the GOP’s agenda. On page 19 of the 31-page blueprint was a proposal to reduce government spending.
“All federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again,” the document reads. It also includes a provision to “Force Congress to issue a report every year telling the public what they plan to do when Social Security and Medicare go bankrupt.”
Asked in a March interview why he proposed a plan that could sunset Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, Scott said “no one that I know of wants to sunset Medicare or Social Security.” But he added that a conversation must be had on how to protect the programs that are on their way to insolvency.
According to the Social Security Administration, the Old-Age & Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is expected to be depleted in 2034, and a Medicare Trustees Report from this year estimates that Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund will run out of funding in 2028.
On top of Scott’s plan, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) in August floated the idea of classifying Social Security and Medicare as discretionary spending, arguing that if they are left to run as they currently do, they will eventually become insolvent. But he said claims that he wants to end the programs are a “lie” and a “distortion.”
In conversations with The Hill, House Republicans emphasized that a bipartisan solution is needed to shore up funds for Social Security and Medicare — but beyond that, specifics are thin.
“Republicans and Democrats are going to have to get together, it will only be a bipartisan solution ultimately, but we have to get together, all options on the table, on both sides, to make it work,” Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), a member of the Ways and Means Committee, told The Hill.
“We really have to sit down in a bipartisan fashion,” Wenstrup said. “It can’t be just one party that does it.”
Asked what Republicans hope to see from those talks, Wenstrup said “there’s multifaceted components to it. How you can make this more solvent just like any business, right? And, you know, all of those need to be discussed.”
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), the chairman of the conservative Freedom Caucus, responded “I don’t know” when pressed on how he would rethink the federal programs, arguing “it’s a bigger discussion.”
“It’d be nice to have a bipartisan one, so let’s see where they are,” he added.
Some Republicans floated cutting taxes to shore up the programs, arguing economic growth would mean more funds in government coffers.
Wenstrup pointed to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted during the Trump administration in 2017, which lowered tax rates for most individual income tax brackets.
The Congressional Budget Office found that Medicare funding improved after the tax legislation went into effect — during a period of robust economic growth — pushing back protected insolvency timing by one year.
“We just can’t keep going the way we’re going, everyone knows that for a while. And actually, when we did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, revenues to the government increased, and we were actually increasing the funding for Medicare and Social Security,” Wenstrup said. “So why not head in that direction again as best we can and not just increase taxes.”
Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) said the country needs to grow the GDP to secure funding for Social Security and Medicare. One way to do that, he argued, is by cutting taxes.
“There’s only two ways to grow GDP, you cut taxes or reduce regulation or a combination of those. And I think that’s the direction we’re going to head in but we’re gonna make sure that again, it’s secure, that Social Security is secure, and remains in place,” he added.
”We just can’t keep going the way we’re going, everyone knows that for a while. And actually, when we did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, revenues to the government increased, and we were actually increasing the funding for Medicare and Social Security,” Wenstrup said. “So why not head in that direction again as best we can and not just increase taxes.”
“We really need to strengthen and protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid,” Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.). “I think that one of the ways we do that is just growing the economy because we need to have the revenue coming in to support these programs. And we do that by growing the GDP.”
“There’s only two ways to grow GDP, you cut taxes or reduce regulation or a combination of those. And I think that’s the direction we’re going to head in but we’re gonna make sure that again, it’s secure, that Social Security is secure, and remains in place,” he added.
Another option to strengthen the two programs is increasing their eligibility ages. Individuals can currently begin receiving Social Security retirement benefits at age 62, and Medicare insurance at age 65.
The Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House, called for changing the eligibility ages for the two programs in its fiscal year 2023 budget, among other proposals. According to Bloomberg, the thresholds would move to 67 for Medicare and 70 for Social Security, before indexing to life expectancy.
Arrington told Bloomberg that raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare could be a commonsense reform.
One strategy the party could utilize to move its changes through Congress is linking them to the debt ceiling, which must be raised or suspended by a yet-to-be-determined deadline to prevent the federal government from defaulting on payments.
McCarthy, who will likely become Speaker next year if Republicans win control of the House, suggested to Punchbowl News in an interview published on Tuesday that the House GOP conference would use the debt limit as a way to force policy changes. He told the outlet that he would not “predetermine”anything when asked if he planned to try and reform the benefits programs in that way.
One day later he tried to tame concerns about a potential entitlement program and debt ceiling negotiation, telling CNBC “I never mentioned Social Security or Medicare.”
“The question was, would you just raise the debt ceiling without having a discussion — not about entitlements — but about our spending behavior right now? And my question would be, we have to change our behavior. We can’t continue down this path,” he said.
“The debt ceiling needs to be raised, but I also know I’m going to strengthen Social Security, Medicare. I never brought them up. That is where the Democrats continue to try to put something else out there,” he later added.
Polls show that the solvency of Medicare and Social Security is top-of-mind for voters this November, especially women over 50 years of age.
A poll conducted by AARP between Sept. 6 and Sept. 13 found that Medicare and Social Security is the fifth most important issue in determining the vote of women over 50 in the midterms, coming in at 41 percent.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats have been anxious to talk about Scott’s plan in the final stretch to the November races.
“Folks, you know, the senator in charge of reelecting the United States senators — Senator Scott — has proposed the plan where Social Security, Medicare every five years on the chopping block,” President Biden said last month. “It means every five years, you either cut it, it reduces, or completely eliminate it — Social Security and Medicare.”
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) at a press conference last month said Republicans want to slash Social Security and end Medicare “as we know it.”
However, The Washington Post in September gave four pinocchios to the Democratic claim that Senate Republicans “plan to end Social Security and Medicare,” based on a tweet from Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), who is running in a competitive re-election race against Republican TIffany Smiley.
The Post said Murray’s tweet relied too heavily on the plans from Scott and Johnson, which have little support, to characterize the entire party.
But politics and tactics aside, House Republicans appear intent to do something. Asked if the GOP would be willing to talk about Medicare and Social Security reform, Perry told The Hill “they’re going insolvent, our job is to fix things around here.”