Will Trump go to jail?

Former President Trump’s swift guilty verdict on 34 counts related to concealing hush money payments makes him the first president to be convicted of a felony, but it does not mean he is going to jail any time soon.

A New York jury found Trump guilty on every charge brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) in the case, determining he falsified business records in having his then-fixer Michael Cohen pay off adult film actress Stormy Daniels to conceal news of the alleged affair heading into the 2016 election.

But there’s a lengthy path ahead before Trump would serve any sentence, let alone face jail time.

The former president won’t face sentencing until a July 11 hearing, a date that comes just four days before he is set to officially become that nominee at the Republican National Convention. A conviction does not bar him from running for office.

And while Trump could face jail time, first-time offenders on charges like Trump’s are often not incarcerated. All of the charges are Class E felonies, and while each count carries a maximum of four years in prison, those convicted of such charges often face probation rather than jail time. 

Also complicating matters is that Trump is highly likely to appeal the verdict.

Leaving the Manhattan courthouse Thursday, he called the ruling “a disgrace.” He previously pleaded not guilty to the charges, adding outside the courthouse that he is a “very innocent man” and plans to “keep fighting.”

Trump’s team has 30 days to file a notice of appeal with the court and has six months to file the full appeal. That will kick off another lengthy legal battle that would likely extend beyond the November election.

It’s possible an appeals court would also stay Trump’s sentence, leaving the matter on pause while he pursues a challenge.

Trump also nodded to the election when criticizing the jury’s decision, saying “the real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people.”

Trump is still facing charges in three other cases: two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith dealing with his efforts to thwart the transition of power and the Mar-a-Lago documents case, as well as a Goergia case likewise targeting his election interference campaign.

If Trump wins the election, his Justice Department is expected to drop its two federal cases against him. They would have no such power to do so in the state-level cases in New York and Georgia.

Trump is also unable to pardon himself on any state-level charges.

Updated at 6:53 p.m.