Most expect Trump to be convicted in hush money trial: Poll

Most registered voters say they expect former President Trump to be convicted on some or all counts in his ongoing hush money criminal trial in New York, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Suffolk University/USA Today survey, conducted from April 30 to May 3, shows 65.1 percent of registered voters expect the jury to render a verdict of either guilty on all counts (14.8 percent) or a guilty on some counts (50.3 percent).

Another 23.1 percent of registered voters say they expect Trump to be found not guilty on all counts, 10.3 percent are undecided, while 1.5 percent refused to answer.

Trump faces 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records in connection to reimbursements to his ex-fixer, Michael Cohen, who paid porn actor Stormy Daniels $130,000 to stay quiet about an alleged affair she had with the former president ahead of the 2016 election. It is the first of four criminal trials Trump could face.

The survey did not provide respondents with much information about the trial, only saying, “We’re about halfway through with the Trump hush money trial in New York City,” before asking for “just your best guess” on what the jury verdict will be. Respondents were given five responses from which to select.

The poll reveals a clear link between party affiliation and prediction of the verdict in the trial.

Among Democrats and those who “lean” Democrat, 85.7 percent expect Trump to be found either guilty on all counts (22.5 percent) or guilty on some counts (63.2 percent). Only 7.8 percent of Democrats expect Trump to be found not guilty on all counts.

Views among Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters are split. Of them, 45.8 percent expect Trump to be found either guilty on all counts (8.7 percent) or guilty on some counts (37.2 percent), while 40.7 percent expect Trump to be found not guilty on all counts.

The possibility of a hung jury was not included among the possible outcomes.

A recent PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, conducted during the first week of testimony in the trial, indicates many Americans are not paying attention to the developments in New York court. In that poll, 55 percent said they were not following the trial much or at all, compared to 45 percent who said they were paying some or a lot of attention.

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters by phone interview. It had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.