District by district – Florida

FLORIDA-02

Rep. Boyd trails by double digits

Rep.
Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) is down a dozen points in his race against
Republican Steve Southerland, 38 percent to 50, with 9 percent of
likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election
Poll.

{mosads}Southerland leads among males, females and middle-aged and older voters. He’s also winning 12 percent of Democrats.

Boyd,
meanwhile, has high unfavorable ratings. The poll found 54 percent of
voters gave him unfavorable marks to the 34 percent who rated him
favorably.

President Obama also gets negative marks from
voters, with 61 percent disapproving of the job he’s doing. That could
come back to hurt Boyd, as 68 percent said the president is an
important factor in their decision.

Plus, Republicans are
investing big to win this district. The National Republican
Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent almost $668,000, while the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent about
$167,000. Outside groups have also spent heavily in this district.

Boyd
is a seven-term lawmaker and member of the conservative Blue Dog
Coalition. He’s been endorsed by the National Rifle Association (NRA)
and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which doesn’t seem to be helping him
in this GOP-leaning district.

Though he is a longtime GOP
target, Boyd won reelection with a comfortable 62 percent last cycle
and hasn’t faced a close contest until this year.

Southerland
has benefited from Tea Party ties. He’s criticized Boyd for voting for
the healthcare bill and tried to tie him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi
(D-Calif.) — a tactic that could be working, as 52 percent of voters
said Boyd’s time in Washington was a reason to vote against him.
Southerland has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and House GOP leader John Boehner (Ohio)
campaigned for him in Florida.

The Hill poll was conducted
Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 399 phone
interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or
minus 4.9 percent.