District by district – Iowa

by The Hill Staff - 10/27/10 2:00 AM ET

IOWA-03

Rep. Boswell with big lead

Rep.
Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) has a big lead over Republican Brad Zaun, 49
percent to 37, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided, according to
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Boswell
is winning independents by 17 points, getting 10 percent of the
Republican vote, and has double-digit leads among female, middle-aged
and older voters.

His favorability rating is high, at 51 percent, while Zaun’s unfavorable rating is at 47 percent.

Zaun
has been hit hard in this campaign. Democrats sent around a mailer
highlighting his past financial troubles, claiming he tried to avoid
paying his federal taxes and home mortgage. Zaun acknowledges money
problems but said he has dug himself out of a financial hole. Democrats
also noted Zaun originally opposed tax breaks for biofuels, which can
be a deadly issue in this soybean state. But it was a popular position
with the Tea Party grass roots, which helped him win the GOP
nomination. He now supports the tax break.

Boswell is also
benefiting from strong support from women, who favor him by 20 points.
A story in the Des Moines Register about a 2001 police report that said
Zaun allegedly harassed a former girlfriend could be playing a role in
those numbers.

Boswell, a Blue Dog Democrat, is always a GOP
target and has never topped 56 percent in this Democratic-leaning
district. He voted for cap-and-trade legislation, the stimulus and
healthcare reform. The Chamber is spending against him, but the NRA has
endorsed him. Vice Joe President Biden has been out to campaign for
him.

The seven-term Democrat sits on the Agriculture
Committee and helped write the 2008 Farm Bill. He will likely have a
role in the 2012 version of the legislation if he’s still a lawmaker.
And 52 percent of voters said his time in Washington is a reason to
vote for him.

Democrats have invested heavily here: The DCCC has spent about $560,000, while the NRCC hasn’t spent anything.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

– Looming anti-Obama midterm vote may not carry through to 2012
– Likely voters throw a wrench into GOP budget plans
– This campaign is the nastiest, voters say

– Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
– Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
– GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
– District by district
– Data: The numbers the stories are based on
– Editorial: Dems in deep danger

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