District by district – Pennsylvania

PENNSYLVANIA-11

Rep. Kanjorski down by five

Rep.
Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) trails Republican Lou Barletta, 43 percent to
48, in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 8 percent of likely
voters undecided.

{mosads}Barletta
gets 23 percent of Democratic support and is winning independents by 33
points. He’s also winning male and older voters. Kanjorski is getting
12 percent of GOP support and winning among female and younger voters.
The two candidates split middle-aged voters, taking 45 percent apiece.

Voters
are split on their opinion of the incumbent: Forty-seven percent rate
him favorably, while 47 percent rate him unfavorably. Barletta has 52
percent favorability, with 38 percent giving him low marks.

Kanjorski
has faced Barletta twice before — in 2002 and 2008. In 2002, he beat
him by 13 points. And, in 2008, polls showed Kanjorski trailing
Barletta by as many as five points, but he won by four points in the
Democratic-leaning district.

Kanjorski is No. 2 on the
House Financial Services Committee and is known for his ability to
bring money to the district. The New York Times called him a “master of
earmarking.”

That could come back to hurt him. When asked
if they’d rather have a member of Congress who’d cut spending or one
who would bring benefits to the district, 55 percent said they’d prefer
a lawmaker who cut spending while 39 percent said they’d prefer
benefits.

President Obama carried the district in 2008, but
51 percent gave him low marks. And 67 percent said the president will
be an important factor in their decision this year.

Barletta
has attacked the 13-term incumbent for his length of service. In a
Barletta campaign ad, the narrator states: “Know a guy who wears out
his welcome? Paul Kanjorski has just been around too long.” It may
prove an effective message; 46 percent said Kanjorski’s time in
Washington is a reason to vote against him.

Kanjorski has
brought in the big guns in the form of former President Clinton and
Vice President Joe Biden to campaign for him. He’s also outraised and
outspent Barletta, but the Republican Party has outspent the Democratic
Party.

The NRCC has spent around $901,000 on this race, while the DCCC has spent more than $400,000.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 402 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.