The Hill Poll Week 4

District by district – South Dakota

SOUTH DAKOTA-AT LARGE

Undecided Republicans up for grabs

Rep.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) leads Republican Kristi Noem 45
percent to 42, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}There
are a large number of undecided Republicans in this district, which
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried in 2008. Of those self-identified
GOP voters, 13 percent said they are undecided. Among those who have
made up their minds, 19 percent support Herseth Sandlin. Meanwhile,
Noem wins 10 percent of the Democratic vote.

Herseth Sandlin
is winning independents by 12 points. She’s also leading by 17 points
among women. Noem leads among male voters by 13 points.

The
three-term incumbent gets high marks from voters: Fifty-six percent
rated her favorably, while 38 percent said the opposite. Fifty-one
percent view Noem favorably, but 40 percent view her unfavorably.
Voters also see Herseth Sandlin’s experience as a good thing — 47
percent said her time in Washington is a reason to vote for her.

And,
in contrast to what national polls have shown, more Democrats than
Republicans are enthusiastic about voting here. The poll found 98
percent of Democrats said they are passionate about voting, while 91
percent of Republicans said the same.

This is Herseth
Sandlin’s most serious challenge to date. She won by 40 points in 2006
and, in 2008, won with 68 percent. The Blue Dog Democrat voted against
healthcare reform and has been endorsed by the NRA. She is the first
female South Dakota sent to Congress and, at 39, the youngest woman
serving in the lower chamber.

Republicans have outspent
Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $82,000 while the NRCC has
spent about $726,768. Outside groups have also spent heavily. And, in a
surprise to political observers, Noem outraised Herseth Sandlin in the
third quarter.

This race has gotten a lot of national
attention, especially when reports surfaced that Noem has 28 past
traffic violations. Democrats made this an issue, showing an ad
blasting Noem’s driving record and hinting it could endanger children.
The Noem campaign criticized the ad.

The Hill poll was
conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of
399 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of
plus or minus 4.9 percent.

— This story was updated at 3:51 p.m.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: Dems in deep danger

District by
district results

Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
Illinois
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: The results so far

District by

district results

Arkansas
Illinois
West Virginia
Hawaii
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania
Michigan

Tennessee
Washington

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election

About the poll

GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight

Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election

Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican

Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia