The Hill Poll Week 4

District by district – Texas

TEXAS-17

Rep. Edwards down 12 points

Rep.
Chet Edwards (D-Texas) trails Republican Bill Flores 40 percent to 52
in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 7 percent of likely voters
undecided.

{mosads}Flores
is winning independents by 11 points, plus he’s winning men by 18
points and women by eight points. Middle-aged and older voters are also
going for the Republican, while Edwards leads among younger voters.

Edwards’s
unfavorable ratings are higher than his favorable, 49 percent versus 45
percent, while 56 percent of voters give Flores high marks.

This
district has been trending Republican since the redistricting process.
Former President George W. Bush’s Crawford ranch is in Texas’s 17th,
and Edwards, a 10-term incumbent, has been a target since the lines of
the district were redrawn.

In 2006, he won by 18 points, but the 2008 race was closer and he won with 53 percent.

Edwards
is a more centrist member of the caucus, but he’s also a close ally of
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who suggested President Obama put him
on the vice presidential shortlist in 2008. Obama did so but ultimately
picked then-Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. Pelosi also helped Edwards
secure a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee.

Republicans
have made much of his ties to the Speaker, but Edwards has not
committed to voting for her in the next Congress. Instead, Edwards has
tried to distance himself with a campaign ad that said: “When President
Obama and Nancy Pelosi pressured Chet Edwards, Chet stood up to them
and voted no against their trillion-dollar healthcare bill and no to
cap-and-trade.” The poll found 48 percent of voters said his years in
Washington were a reason to vote against him.

Flores has made
some missteps in the campaign’s closing week, having to explain a
comment where he seemed to indicate a willingness to raise the Social
Security retirement age. He said he had a headache and misspoke. Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried this district in 2008 and has cut an ad
for Flores.

Republicans have outspent Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $58,000, while the NRCC has spent about $505,000.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 4

Looming anti-Obama midterm vote may not carry through to 2012
Likely voters throw a wrench into GOP budget plans
This campaign is the nastiest, voters say

Blowout: 50 or more Dem seats set to fall
Endangered species: Longterm incumbents
GOP tsunami ready to sweep the South
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: Dems in deep danger

District by
district results

Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 3

Pelosi ‘majority makers’ are facing electoral peril
Only 1-in-4 see American Dream as still there for all
Voters are not worried about ‘extreme’ label on candidates
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: Election tides

District by
district results

Arizona
Illinois
Mississippi
New Hampshire
New York
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Hill 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 2

Voters more likely to see Dems as dominated by extremists
Independents prefer cutting the deficit to spending on jobs
Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts
Republicans are up in 8 of 10 open House seats
After forty Dem years, Obey’s seat in jeopardy
Majority of voters say they want a viable third party
District by district
Data: The numbers the stories are based on
Editorial: The results so far

District by

district results

Arkansas
Illinois
West Virginia
Hawaii
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania
Michigan

Tennessee
Washington

The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm
Election Poll Stories WEEK 1

Voters: Nancy Pelosi did not drain swamp
Tea Party is firing up the Democrats
Republican voters more ‘passionate’ about voting in the midterm election

About the poll

GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but races tight

Feelings about Obama make midterms a national election

Independents prefer divided government, lean Republican

Distaste for healthcare law crosses party lines
Editorial: Knowing who will win

District by
district results

Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia