District by district – North Dakota

NORTH DAKOTA-AT LARGE

One point is all it takes

Rep.
Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) leads Republican Rick Berg by one point, 45
percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided,
according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Independents
are breaking for Pomeroy by 15 points. He leads among female and older
voters, while Berg leads among male, younger and middle-aged voters.

Voters
seem to have equal rates of enthusiasm — 93 percent of Republicans said
they are passionate about voting, while 94 percent of Democrats said
the same.

They also rate the candidates equally: Both Pomeroy
and Berg got a 49 percent favorability rating. Pomeroy’s negatives were
a bit higher: He had 44 percent to Berg’s 31.

Pomeroy is a
target in this red state. But in the last two elections, he won with
more than 60 percent of the vote. And a plurality of voters — 45
percent — said his time in Washington was a reason to vote for him.

Berg,
a state representative, is running his first statewide campaign, while
Pomeroy is a nine-term incumbent. But Pomeroy, a Blue Dog Democrat,
voted in favor of healthcare reform, which could hurt him. Another
factor in this race could be popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven, who’s
running for the Senate. He’s favored to win and could bring out GOP
voters.

Social Security has been an issue in this race.
Pomeroy is the chairman of the Social Security subcommittee of the
House Ways and Means Committee. He has criticized Republican plans for
the program, claiming they would reduce benefits. That could prove a
popular stance, since 67 percent of voters said they do not want cuts
to programs like Social Security and Medicaid.

Both parties have invested heavily here: The DCCC has spent about $501,000, while the NRCC has spent around $1.1 million.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 398 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.