District by district – South Dakota

SOUTH DAKOTA-AT LARGE

Undecided Republicans up for grabs

Rep.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) leads Republican Kristi Noem 45
percent to 42, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}There
are a large number of undecided Republicans in this district, which
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried in 2008. Of those self-identified
GOP voters, 13 percent said they are undecided. Among those who have
made up their minds, 19 percent support Herseth Sandlin. Meanwhile,
Noem wins 10 percent of the Democratic vote.

Herseth Sandlin
is winning independents by 12 points. She’s also leading by 17 points
among women. Noem leads among male voters by 13 points.

The
three-term incumbent gets high marks from voters: Fifty-six percent
rated her favorably, while 38 percent said the opposite. Fifty-one
percent view Noem favorably, but 40 percent view her unfavorably.
Voters also see Herseth Sandlin’s experience as a good thing — 47
percent said her time in Washington is a reason to vote for her.

And,
in contrast to what national polls have shown, more Democrats than
Republicans are enthusiastic about voting here. The poll found 98
percent of Democrats said they are passionate about voting, while 91
percent of Republicans said the same.

This is Herseth
Sandlin’s most serious challenge to date. She won by 40 points in 2006
and, in 2008, won with 68 percent. The Blue Dog Democrat voted against
healthcare reform and has been endorsed by the NRA. She is the first
female South Dakota sent to Congress and, at 39, the youngest woman
serving in the lower chamber.

Republicans have outspent
Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $82,000 while the NRCC has
spent about $726,768. Outside groups have also spent heavily. And, in a
surprise to political observers, Noem outraised Herseth Sandlin in the
third quarter.

This race has gotten a lot of national
attention, especially when reports surfaced that Noem has 28 past
traffic violations. Democrats made this an issue, showing an ad
blasting Noem’s driving record and hinting it could endanger children.
The Noem campaign criticized the ad.

The Hill poll was
conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of
399 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of
plus or minus 4.9 percent.

— This story was updated at 3:51 p.m.