District by district – Texas

TEXAS-17

Rep. Edwards down 12 points

Rep.
Chet Edwards (D-Texas) trails Republican Bill Flores 40 percent to 52
in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 7 percent of likely voters
undecided.

{mosads}Flores
is winning independents by 11 points, plus he’s winning men by 18
points and women by eight points. Middle-aged and older voters are also
going for the Republican, while Edwards leads among younger voters.

Edwards’s
unfavorable ratings are higher than his favorable, 49 percent versus 45
percent, while 56 percent of voters give Flores high marks.

This
district has been trending Republican since the redistricting process.
Former President George W. Bush’s Crawford ranch is in Texas’s 17th,
and Edwards, a 10-term incumbent, has been a target since the lines of
the district were redrawn.

In 2006, he won by 18 points, but the 2008 race was closer and he won with 53 percent.

Edwards
is a more centrist member of the caucus, but he’s also a close ally of
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who suggested President Obama put him
on the vice presidential shortlist in 2008. Obama did so but ultimately
picked then-Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. Pelosi also helped Edwards
secure a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee.

Republicans
have made much of his ties to the Speaker, but Edwards has not
committed to voting for her in the next Congress. Instead, Edwards has
tried to distance himself with a campaign ad that said: “When President
Obama and Nancy Pelosi pressured Chet Edwards, Chet stood up to them
and voted no against their trillion-dollar healthcare bill and no to
cap-and-trade.” The poll found 48 percent of voters said his years in
Washington were a reason to vote against him.

Flores has made
some missteps in the campaign’s closing week, having to explain a
comment where he seemed to indicate a willingness to raise the Social
Security retirement age. He said he had a headache and misspoke. Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried this district in 2008 and has cut an ad
for Flores.

Republicans have outspent Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $58,000, while the NRCC has spent about $505,000.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.