District by district
D: Jim Marshall: 37%
R: Austin Scott: 50%
D: Allen Boyd: 38%
R: Steve Southerland: 50%
D: Leonard Boswell: 49%
R: Brad Zaun: 37%
D: Baron Hill: 46%
R: Todd Young: 44%
D: John Spratt: 39%
R: Mick Mulvaney: 49%
D: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin: 45%
R: Kristi Noem: 42%
D: Earl Pomeroy: 45%
R: Rick Berg: 44%
D: John Salazar: 43%
R: Scott Tipton: 47%
D: Paul Kanjorski: 43%
R: Lou Barletta: 48%
D: Chet Edwards: 40%
R: Bill Flores: 52%
Rep. Salazar trails by four
{mosads}Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.) trails his GOP opponent, Scott Tipton, by four points in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 8 percent of likely voters undecided.
Independent voters are breaking for Tipton by 15 points. He’s also winning among male, female, middle-aged and older voters.
Salazar is winning among younger voters, but the three-term lawmaker gets mixed reviews from his constituents. When asked about him, 46 percent gave Salazar a favorable rating while 48 percent gave him an unfavorable one.
A big issue in this district is earmarks. Tipton has criticized Salazar for bringing home millions in federal dollars and has taken a no-earmark pledge.
Voters tend to agree with him. When asked if they’d rather have a member of Congress who’d fight to cut spending or one who will fight to bring benefits to the district, 55 percent said they’d prefer a lawmaker who cut spending while 36 percent wanted one who would bring back the money.
Independent voters also preferred a lawmaker who would cut spending.
Salazar is the brother of senator-turned-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. He’s had Labor Secretary Hilda Solis out to campaign for him. Ken Salazar has been notably absent in this GOP-leaning district. The Interior secretary is unpopular among the district’s voters and has been an issue in the race: Americans United for Life, an anti-abortion-rights group, ran an attack ad against John Salazar — only it called him by his brother’s name five times.
A corrected version of the ad aired later.
The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Boyd trails by double digits
Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) is down a dozen points in his race against Republican Steve Southerland, 38 percent to 50, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Southerland leads among males, females and middle-aged and older voters. He’s also winning 12 percent of Democrats.
Boyd, meanwhile, has high unfavorable ratings. The poll found 54 percent of voters gave him unfavorable marks to the 34 percent who rated him favorably.
President Obama also gets negative marks from voters, with 61 percent disapproving of the job he’s doing. That could come back to hurt Boyd, as 68 percent said the president is an important factor in their decision.
Plus, Republicans are investing big to win this district. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent almost $668,000, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent about $167,000. Outside groups have also spent heavily in this district.
Boyd is a seven-term lawmaker and member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition. He’s been endorsed by the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which doesn’t seem to be helping him in this GOP-leaning district.
Though he is a longtime GOP target, Boyd won reelection with a comfortable 62 percent last cycle and hasn’t faced a close contest until this year.
Southerland has benefited from Tea Party ties. He’s criticized Boyd for voting for the healthcare bill and tried to tie him to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — a tactic that could be working, as 52 percent of voters said Boyd’s time in Washington was a reason to vote against him. Southerland has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and House GOP leader John Boehner (Ohio) campaigned for him in Florida.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 399 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Marshall down by 13 points
Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) is down 13 points, 37 percent to 50, against Republican Austin Scott, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Ironically, voters give the four-term lawmaker high marks: Forty-five percent rated him favorably, compared to the 40 percent who rated him unfavorably. Scott had higher ratings, however, with 50 percent giving him favorable marks compared to 19 percent who didn’t.
Marshall is a conservative Blue Dog who’s indicated he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for Speaker next Congress. In an ad for Marshall, an announcer notes: “Jim Marshall doesn’t support Nancy Pelosi. He voted the same as Republican leaders 65 percent of the time.”
Incumbency could be a problem for Marshall, as 41 percent of those polled said his time in Washington is a reason to vote against him.
Marshall voted against cap-and-trade legislation and against the healthcare bill. The U.S. Chamber has endorsed him, but this doesn’t seem to be helping him in a district that has grown more conservative through redistricting.
The NRCC has spent almost $467,000 in this race, while the DCCC has spent about $31,000.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Hill leads by two
Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) holds a slim, two-point lead, 46 percent to 44, against Republican Todd Young, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Hill is leading among female, younger and older voters. He’s also getting 12 percent of support from Republicans, which could be making up for the fact that Young is winning independents and men.
Hill gets good marks from his constituents, with 49 percent rating him favorably. The Blue Dog Democrat could also be benefiting from his reputation as a fiscal hawk. When asked if they’d rather have a member of Congress who’d cut spending or one who would bring benefits to the district, 52 percent said they’d prefer a lawmaker who cut spending while 39 percent held the opposing view.
The five-term incumbent has a mixed track record in this GOP-leaning district. Hill won the seat in 1998, lost it in 2004 and won it again in 2006. His persistence may have come from Milan High School, the school in his district that inspired the movie “Hoosiers.”
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 400 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Boswell with big lead
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa) has a big lead over Republican Brad Zaun, 49 percent to 37, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Boswell is winning independents by 17 points, getting 10 percent of the Republican vote, and has double-digit leads among female, middle-aged and older voters.
His favorability rating is high, at 51 percent, while Zaun’s unfavorable rating is at 47 percent.
Zaun has been hit hard in this campaign. Democrats sent around a mailer highlighting his past financial troubles, claiming he tried to avoid paying his federal taxes and home mortgage. Zaun acknowledges money problems but said he has dug himself out of a financial hole. Democrats also noted Zaun originally opposed tax breaks for biofuels, which can be a deadly issue in this soybean state. But it was a popular position with the Tea Party grass roots, which helped him win the GOP nomination. He now supports the tax break.
Boswell is also benefiting from strong support from women, who favor him by 20 points. A story in the Des Moines Register about a 2001 police report that said Zaun allegedly harassed a former girlfriend could be playing a role in those numbers.
Boswell, a Blue Dog Democrat, is always a GOP target and has never topped 56 percent in this Democratic-leaning district. He voted for cap-and-trade legislation, the stimulus and healthcare reform. The Chamber is spending against him, but the NRA has endorsed him. Vice Joe President Biden has been out to campaign for him.
The seven-term Democrat sits on the Agriculture Committee and helped write the 2008 Farm Bill. He will likely have a role in the 2012 version of the legislation if he’s still a lawmaker. And 52 percent of voters said his time in Washington is a reason to vote for him.
Democrats have invested heavily here: The DCCC has spent about $560,000, while the NRCC hasn’t spent anything.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
One point is all it takes
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) leads Republican Rick Berg by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Independents are breaking for Pomeroy by 15 points. He leads among female and older voters, while Berg leads among male, younger and middle-aged voters.
Voters seem to have equal rates of enthusiasm — 93 percent of Republicans said they are passionate about voting, while 94 percent of Democrats said the same.
They also rate the candidates equally: Both Pomeroy and Berg got a 49 percent favorability rating. Pomeroy’s negatives were a bit higher: He had 44 percent to Berg’s 31.
Pomeroy is a target in this red state. But in the last two elections, he won with more than 60 percent of the vote. And a plurality of voters — 45 percent — said his time in Washington was a reason to vote for him.
Berg, a state representative, is running his first statewide campaign, while Pomeroy is a nine-term incumbent. But Pomeroy, a Blue Dog Democrat, voted in favor of healthcare reform, which could hurt him. Another factor in this race could be popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven, who’s running for the Senate. He’s favored to win and could bring out GOP voters.
Social Security has been an issue in this race. Pomeroy is the chairman of the Social Security subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee. He has criticized Republican plans for the program, claiming they would reduce benefits. That could prove a popular stance, since 67 percent of voters said they do not want cuts to programs like Social Security and Medicaid.
Both parties have invested heavily here: The DCCC has spent about $501,000, while the NRCC has spent around $1.1 million.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 398 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Kanjorski down by five
Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) trails Republican Lou Barletta, 43 percent to 48, in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 8 percent of likely voters undecided.
Barletta gets 23 percent of Democratic support and is winning independents by 33 points. He’s also winning male and older voters. Kanjorski is getting 12 percent of GOP support and winning among female and younger voters. The two candidates split middle-aged voters, taking 45 percent apiece.
Voters are split on their opinion of the incumbent: Forty-seven percent rate him favorably, while 47 percent rate him unfavorably. Barletta has 52 percent favorability, with 38 percent giving him low marks.
Kanjorski has faced Barletta twice before — in 2002 and 2008. In 2002, he beat him by 13 points. And, in 2008, polls showed Kanjorski trailing Barletta by as many as five points, but he won by four points in the Democratic-leaning district.
Kanjorski is No. 2 on the House Financial Services Committee and is known for his ability to bring money to the district. The New York Times called him a “master of earmarking.”
That could come back to hurt him. When asked if they’d rather have a member of Congress who’d cut spending or one who would bring benefits to the district, 55 percent said they’d prefer a lawmaker who cut spending while 39 percent said they’d prefer benefits.
President Obama carried the district in 2008, but 51 percent gave him low marks. And 67 percent said the president will be an important factor in their decision this year.
Barletta has attacked the 13-term incumbent for his length of service. In a Barletta campaign ad, the narrator states: “Know a guy who wears out his welcome? Paul Kanjorski has just been around too long.” It may prove an effective message; 46 percent said Kanjorski’s time in Washington is a reason to vote against him.
Kanjorski has brought in the big guns in the form of former President Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden to campaign for him. He’s also outraised and outspent Barletta, but the Republican Party has outspent the Democratic Party.
The NRCC has spent around $901,000 on this race, while the DCCC has spent more than $400,000.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 402 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
House Budget chairman down by 10 points
Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) trails Republican Mick Mulvaney by 10 points, 39 percent to 49 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
Mulvaney is winning independents by 23 points and leads among male, female, middle-aged and older voters. The only group Spratt leads is younger voters, but he’s winning that unpredictable voting group by a mere two points.
Spratt’s favorability rating is 41 percent, with 47 percent rating him unfavorably. And 43 percent said Spratt’s 14 terms in Congress were a reason to vote against him.
Spratt is the chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made him her point man on budget issues. Those ties have come back to haunt him. The NRCC has aired several adds highlighting his ties to the party leadership, including one where he’s called a “rubber stamp” for Pelosi and another where he’s shown dancing alongside the Speaker.
When Pelosi was in South Carolina in September, she hosted a fundraiser for Spratt in Charleston, which is outside of his district.
He voted for cap-and-trade legislation, the stimulus and healthcare reform — votes the GOP is reminding the electorate of in its campaign ads.
Spratt has been targeted by the GOP before, to no avail. In 2006, Republicans sent then-Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for his opponent, but Spratt easily won that race and, in 2008, prevailed with a comfortable 62 percent. Yet his district has turned more and more Republican. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won it in 2008, and President Obama is unpopular here, with 55 percent of voters rating him unfavorably.
Mulvaney has the backing of the Tea Party and has been endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has campaigned for him.
The DCCC has spent about $872,000, while the NRCC has spent about $1 million.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-20 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 499 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
Undecided Republicans up for grabs
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) leads Republican Kristi Noem 45 percent to 42, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.
There are a large number of undecided Republicans in this district, which Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried in 2008. Of those self-identified GOP voters, 13 percent said they are undecided. Among those who have made up their minds, 19 percent support Herseth Sandlin. Meanwhile, Noem wins 10 percent of the Democratic vote.
Herseth Sandlin is winning independents by 12 points. She’s also leading by 17 points among women. Noem leads among male voters by 13 points.
The three-term incumbent gets high marks from voters: Fifty-six percent rated her favorably, while 38 percent said the opposite. Fifty-one percent view Noem favorably, but 40 percent view her unfavorably. Voters also see Herseth Sandlin’s experience as a good thing — 47 percent said her time in Washington is a reason to vote for her.
And, in contrast to what national polls have shown, more Democrats than Republicans are enthusiastic about voting here. The poll found 98 percent of Democrats said they are passionate about voting, while 91 percent of Republicans said the same.
This is Herseth Sandlin’s most serious challenge to date. She won by 40 points in 2006 and, in 2008, won with 68 percent. The Blue Dog Democrat voted for healthcare reform and has been endorsed by the NRA. She is the first female South Dakota sent to Congress and, at 39, the youngest woman serving in the lower chamber.
Republicans have outspent Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $82,000 while the NRCC has spent about $726,768. Outside groups have also spent heavily. And, in a surprise to political observers, Noem outraised Herseth Sandlin in the third quarter.
This race has gotten a lot of national attention, especially when reports surfaced that Noem has 28 past traffic violations. Democrats made this an issue, showing an ad blasting Noem’s driving record and hinting it could endanger children. The Noem campaign criticized the ad.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 399 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Rep. Edwards down 12 points
Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) trails Republican Bill Flores 40 percent to 52 in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll, with 7 percent of likely voters undecided.
Flores is winning independents by 11 points, plus he’s winning men by 18 points and women by eight points. Middle-aged and older voters are also going for the Republican, while Edwards leads among younger voters.
Edwards’s unfavorable ratings are higher than his favorable, 49 percent versus 45 percent, while 56 percent of voters give Flores high marks.
This district has been trending Republican since the redistricting process. Former President George W. Bush’s Crawford ranch is in Texas’s 17th, and Edwards, a 10-term incumbent, has been a target since the lines of the district were redrawn.
In 2006, he won by 18 points, but the 2008 race was closer and he won with 53 percent.
Edwards is a more centrist member of the caucus, but he’s also a close ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who suggested President Obama put him on the vice presidential shortlist in 2008. Obama did so but ultimately picked then-Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. Pelosi also helped Edwards secure a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee.
Republicans have made much of his ties to the Speaker, but Edwards has not committed to voting for her in the next Congress. Instead, Edwards has tried to distance himself with a campaign ad that said: “When President Obama and Nancy Pelosi pressured Chet Edwards, Chet stood up to them and voted no against their trillion-dollar healthcare bill and no to cap-and-trade.” The poll found 48 percent of voters said his years in Washington were a reason to vote against him.
Flores has made some missteps in the campaign’s closing week, having to explain a comment where he seemed to indicate a willingness to raise the Social Security retirement age. He said he had a headache and misspoke. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) carried this district in 2008 and has cut an ad for Flores.
Republicans have outspent Democrats here. The DCCC has spent about $58,000, while the NRCC has spent about $505,000.
The Hill poll was conducted Oct. 19-21 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey consisted of 404 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
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