District by district – Arkansas

ARKANSAS-01

Republicans could end Dems’ 100-year lock on this seat

Democrats have held this seat for over a century, but Rep. Marion Berry’s (D-Ark.) retirement could mark the end of the party’s reign.

{mosads}The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll found that Republican Rick Crawford leads by 12 points, 46 percent to 34. Seventeen percent of likely voters are undecided.

Democrat Chad Causey, a former Berry staffer, faces his widest gap among independent voters, who support Crawford 51 percent to 24.

Crawford, a former Army sergeant who now owns a farm-news network, leads among male and female voters and with voters across all age groups.

This seat has been trending Republican: John McCain won it with 59 percent in 2008. And President Obama gets low marks from voters — 62 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing. Congressional disapproval is even higher — 76 percent think Congress is doing a bad job.

And 70 percent of voters said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

Also, a majority of voters, 39 percent, said they have a better view of President George W. Bush now than they had when he first left office. Only 27 percent had a worse view, and 30 percent said they saw him “about the same.”

The NRCC has spent around $337,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $304,000.

The Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 5-7, surveyed 409 likely voters via the telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.