District by district – West Virginia

WEST VIRGINIA-01

Democrat’s primary loss could prove a November win

{mosads}Mike
Oliverio shocked the Democratic establishment when he beat 14-term Rep.
Alan Mollohan in the May primary. Mollohan was the first incumbent
House member to lose in a primary this cycle.

But, in this anti-incumbent election year, Mollohan’s primary loss could prove to be an election-year win for Democrats.

In
The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll, Oliverio leads Republican David
McKinley, 42 percent to 39, with 16 percent of likely voters undecided.

It’s
one of two districts The Hill polled where the Democrats are in the
lead, but it’s a small margin and independents seem to be breaking for
McKinley, 48 percent to 28, with 20 percent of that voting bloc
undecided.

There is a lot of party crossover in this
district: Nineteen percent of Republicans support Oliverio, and 17
percent of Democrats support McKinley.

Voters are also split
among gender, with male voters favoring McKinley and females supporting
Oliverio. Oliverio leads among younger voters, while McKinley leads
among voters age 55 and up.

President Obama could prove
detrimental here: He has a 63 percent disapproval rating, and 72
percent said the president would be an important factor in their 2010
decision.

This is a longtime Democratic stronghold
(Mollohan’s father, Bob, held the seat for several terms before
Mollohan took office), but Obama lost it by 15 percent in 2008.

And
former President George W. Bush has strong numbers here: Forty-four
percent said they had a better view of Bush now than they had when he
first left office. Only 28 percent had a worse view, and 27 percent
said they saw him “about the same.”

The NRCC has spent around $187,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $132,000.

The
Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 405 likely voters via the
telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.