District by district – Arizona

Arizona-1

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R)

{mosads}Kirkpatrick
trails her Republican opponent by seven points, receiving 39 percent of
the vote to Gosar’s 46, according to The Hill/ANGA poll. Twelve percent
of likely voters remain undecided.

Gosar is a favorite of the Tea Party and was backed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin during the Republican primary.

The
Tea Party was found to have a profound effect in this GOP-leaning
district, with 56 percent of voters rating it favorably. Both
Republicans and independents stated they were more likely to support a
Tea Party-backed candidate on Election Day (56 percent of Republicans
and 31 percent of independents).

Gosar also leads Kirkpatrick 2-to-1 among likely male voters. And he leads 43 percent to Kirkpatrick’s 37 among independents.

That
deficit likely extends from voters’ dismal views of Congress and
President Obama. Independents and Republicans expressed deep
dissatisfaction with both Democratic-controlled branches. Moreover, 37
percent more Republicans than Democrats say they are “very passionate”
about voting in November.

Kirkpatrick’s best hope is to win over female voters ages 35-54, who are largely undecided.

The
poll was conducted Sept. 25-30, consisted of 403 phone interviews among
likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.