Global use of oil could peak this decade: IEA

Greenhouse gas emissions and the global demand for fossil fuels could peak this decade, according to an updated analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that emphasized more must be done to prevent devastating climate change.

The agency said that the case for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is “stronger than ever,” citing a rapidly growing green energy industry and electric vehicle sales.

The new projections are an update to the agency’s 2021 plan to get to net zero global greenhouse emissions by 2050. 

“The speed of the roll-out of key clean energy technologies means that the IEA now projects that demand for coal, oil and natural gas will all peak this decade even without any new climate policies,” according to the report. “This is encouraging, but not nearly enough for the 1.5 degree Celsius goal.”

Much of that expansion was prodded on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the report, which forced European countries to move rapidly away from natural gas and to alternative energy sources. 

The IEA projects global renewable energy capacity will nearly triple to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030 and methane emissions will fall to a quarter of current levels in the same period — to about 30 megatons per year.

The new plan also relies less on technologies that have not yet been developed. While about half of the reductions in the 2021 report necessitated future tech, the 2023 update reduces that to about 35 percent.

The technologies that have shown the most promise in the last two years have been new battery processes and the hydrogen electrolysis method of removing carbon dioxide from the air, according to the report.

If the world continues and doubles down on investing in green energy sources, as well as ceases new construction of fossil fuel sources, net zero is still possible by 2050, the IEA said, but a lack of international cooperation makes that difficult.

“By 2035, emissions need to decline by 80 percent in advanced economies and 60 percent in emerging market and developing economies compared to the 2022 level,” according to the report. “As part of an equitable pathway to the global goal of net zero emissions by 2050, almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.”

And as time goes on, the need for action becomes more apparent, the agency said.

“The energy sector is changing faster than many people think, but much more needs to be done and time is short. Momentum is coming not just from the push to meet climate targets but also from the increasingly strong economic case for clean energy, energy security imperatives, and the jobs and industrial opportunities that accompany the new energy economy,” the report concludes. “Yet, momentum must be accelerated to be in line with the 1.5°C goal and to ensure that the process of change works for everyone.”