Wagner rebellion: Why Americans should pay attention

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion against Russian military leadership signals strains within Russia and raises concerns about the country’s leadership as Moscow continues its war on Ukraine, officials and analysts say.

Prigozhin on Friday launched fighters in an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister, accusing Sergei Shoigu of ordering a strike on the mercenary group’s field camps as they fought for Russia in Ukraine.

Prigozhin’s fighters reached the location of Russia’s southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and began moving toward Moscow, but the Wagner chief Saturday ordered his forces to stop the advance.

He reportedly reached a deal with the Kremlin, with help from Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko, a key Putin ally, and has agreed to move to Belarus. 

Here are some of the concerns being raised after the rebellion inside Russia:

The rebellion raises questions about Putin’s power

Putin “put down the rebellion, but at great cost,” former United States Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said Monday on “CBS Mornings.” 

“He labeled Prigozhin a traitor, and Prigozhin was leading a military column to Moscow. And then Putin struck a deal with him and let him go free. That’s extraordinary, to call someone a traitor … because the rationale — why he had to strike the deal, this is according to the Kremlin spokesman — they needed to avoid bloodshed and chaos. What does that say about Putin’s control over the country? It doesn’t speak well,” Sullivan said. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the rebellion shows “cracks in the Russian facade” amid Russia’s 16-month war on its neighbor. 

“And it was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions. It shows real cracks,” Blinken said on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

“Sixteen months ago, Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv, in Ukraine, thinking they’d take the city in a matter of days, thinking they would erase Ukraine from the map as an independent country. Now, over this weekend, they’ve had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against mercenaries of Putin’s own making,” Blinken said. 

Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said Sunday that Prigozhin “lost his nerve” when he called off the rebellion.

“He was … within roughly two hours’ drive of the outskirts of Moscow, where they were starting to prepare defensive positions. This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn’t appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would. And again, he decided to take the deal. He gave up this effort,” Petraeus said of Prigozhin on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

It could be a ‘distraction’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine

Blinken said the rebellion “presents a real distraction” for Putin that could “create greater openings for the Ukrainians to do well on the ground” as they mount their their counteroffensive efforts.

Prigozhin “has raised profound questions about the very premises for Russian aggression against Ukraine in the first place,” Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” The Wagner chief challenged Putin’s justification for Moscow’s ongoing war on its neighbor that the invasion was necessary to denazify and demilitarize the country. 

“The war was needed by oligarchs. It was needed by the clan that is today practically ruling in Russia,” Prigozhin said in a video.

Blinken noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is “progressing” against Russian defenses, as Kyiv pushes to take back occupied territory.

“And to the extent that Russia is now distracted, that Putin has to worry about what’s going on inside of Russia as much as he has to worry about what he’s trying to do not successfully in Ukraine, I think that creates an additional advantage for the Ukrainians to take advantage of,” Blinken said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also spoke with President Biden about the events unfolding over the weekend, said after the rebellion that “Russia’s weakness is obvious.”

“For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it,” Zelensky said.

The deal raises questions about Belarus’s role

The Institute for the Study of War said Sunday that Russia is facing a “deeply unstable equilibrium.”

Among other complications, “the optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits,” the group wrote in a new report.

The deal in which Lukashenko was reportedly involved is “a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian [Ministry of Defense],” the ISW argues. 

“Lukashenko was reelected in a sham election in August 2020. Massive protests. Putin helped him put those down and kept him in power. Now, Putin seems to be more dependent on Lukashenko than the other way around,” Sullivan said, arguing that Belarus and its president have been “completely dependent” on Putin and Russia in the past. 

“There are many examples of how this — these extraordinary events not only give the appearance of weakness, but actually show real weakness by Putin,” Sullivan said. 

Concerns stoked over Russia’s nuclear weapons

“I would think the preeminent concern of American officials today: Who’s in control in Moscow, and in particular, who’s controlling the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world? That affects all Americans. It affects the entire world,” Sullivan said. 

The former ambassador noted that Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, tasked with protecting international peace. 

“Instead, it’s introduced war and chaos, and Putin controls a massive nuclear arsenal. So that’s a grave concern,” he said. 

Nuclear weapons have long been a concern amid Russia’s war, with Putin’s threats last year prompting White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan to warn against Moscow following through. Fighting has also led to instability around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, stoking worries of nuclear accident.

Putin sent nuclear weapons to Belarus earlier this month, purportedly part of a plan to raise fears of escalation. Lukashenko said Belarus received the weapons and would not hesitate to use them.

“God forbid I have to make a decision to use those weapons today, but there would be no hesitation if we face an aggression,” Lukashenko said.