US won’t be pulled into nuclear arms race with Russia, China: Sullivan

The U.S. is committed to countering the growing nuclear threat from Russia and China without expanding its own nuclear arsenal, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday.

“The United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our nuclear competitors in order to successfully deter them,” Sullivan said in a speech to the Arms Control Association annual conference in Washington, D.C.

“​​We’ve been there, we’ve learned that lesson.”

The Biden administration will instead focus on investing in “cutting-edge non-nuclear capabilities,” such as conventionally armed hypersonic missiles that can reach “heavily defended, high-value targets,” Sullivan said. 

The national security adviser’s remarks come at a time where experts and officials have warned that the risk of nuclear confrontation is at its most dangerous point since the Cold War. 

He issued a call for Moscow and Beijing to engage in arms control talks despite other tensions in the relationship, calling compartmentalization “the bedrock of nuclear security, indeed strategic stability for decades.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, while threatening the use of nuclear weapons throughout his nearly 16-month war in Ukraine, has suspended participation in the New START nuclear treaty with the U.S. over Washington’s support for Kyiv.

The treaty, hailed as a landmark in nuclear stability, put in place key limits on American and Russian nuclear weapons and allowed both sides insight into the status of stockpiles in the U.S. and Russia. 

Putin’s suspension of participation in the treaty has thrown into question the future of nuclear arms control when the treaty expires in 2026. The U.S. said it remains open to re-engaging with Russia on negotiating a new arms treaty, or finding a temporary follow-on measure to avoid the complete absence of arms control.  

Sullivan’s speech also served to counter efforts on Capitol Hill by Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and others to formally withdraw the U.S. from the New START treaty and grow the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

“Effective deterrence means that we have a better approach, not a ‘more’ approach,” Sullivan said.  

The nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia are closely matched, with more than 5,000 weapons each — although Moscow is estimated to have a slightly higher stockpile. 

China is estimated to have about 400 nuclear weapons but is on a path to develop an arsenal of 1,500 warheads by 2035, according to an analysis by the Department of Defense.

Sullivan, while criticizing Moscow as “dealing body blows to the post-Cold War nuclear framework”, blasted China’s government for failing to signal any openness to communicate on arms control, and its stonewalling of military-to-military communication.

Relations between Washington and Beijing are at their lowest point in more than four decades of relations, with the U.S. warning that China’s intense pursuit of global influence threatens the current democracy-led world order.

President Biden has predicted an upcoming “thaw” in relations following an intense spiraling down in February with the discovery a Chinese spy balloon traversing the U.S. 

The president’s remarks were made after he had dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Beijing for talks with Chinese officials, the Financial Times reported. 

But an air confrontation Monday over the South China Sea between U.S. and Chinese planes set off a war of words between Washington and Beijing, adding another layer of tension to the relationship. 

And while Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Friday spoke “briefly” with his counterpart, Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, Chinese officials had earlier rejected a U.S. invitation for a formal meeting between the military chiefs. 

“Ultimately, China’s a sovereign country it’s going to have to make its decisions about whether to engage in the responsible military-to-military dialogue that is necessary to manage competition responsibly and reduce the risk of conflict,” Sullivan said.

Still, Sullivan said the U.S. remains open to dialogue with China and said he raised the issue of engaging in arms control talks and setting up crisis channels of communication in a meeting with Beijing’s top foreign policy advisor, Wang Yi, during a rare, face-to-face meeting in Vienna in early May. 

“I had the opportunity to spend two days in Vienna with Wang Yi … and without going into the details of that conversation, which I think both he and I are respecting the discretion of, this was a topic I broached with him,” Sullivan said.