‘Resupply is not an option’: Lawmakers wargame Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Lawmakers are confronting stark realities over a possible Chinese invasion against Taiwan, raising an urgent alarm that the U.S. must act faster to stock up the island on the weapons needed to counter such a military attack. 

That is one of the conclusions drawn after a wargame exercise Wednesday night carried out by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, a bipartisan panel dedicated to identifying the greatest risks posed by the People’s Republic of China against U.S. national security interests. 

U.S. officials have warned that China could invade Taiwan as early as 2027.

China’s goal in bringing Taiwan’s democratic government under control of the People’s Republic is viewed as one of its most sacred policy goals.

U.S. officials have warned that even as Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to impose economic or diplomatic pressure to subsume the island, a military option is becoming increasingly likely. 

Lawmakers — with an eye on Ukraine’s more than yearlong defensive war against Russia and the global consequences — are raising an urgent alarm that Taiwan needs to have the military means in place to deter Beijing from launching an invasion. 

“We are well within the window of maximum danger for a Chinese Communist Party invasion of Taiwan, and yesterday’s wargame stressed the need to take action to deter CCP aggression and arm Taiwan to the teeth before any crisis begins,” the committee’s chairman, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), said in a statement to The Hill on Thursday.

The wargame was carried out behind closed doors on Capitol Hill as a tabletop exercise between lawmakers, playing the role of the Taiwanese, and defense experts at the Center for a New American Security, playing the part of the Chinese. The game lasted for about two hours and reinforced the resolve of many lawmakers to address vulnerabilities they were already concerned about, said Andrew Metrick, a fellow with the Defense Program at CNAS and co-creator of the wargame.

“I was impressed with all of the members and their thoughtfulness, their seriousness, and I would say their commitment to taking the lessons from these types of exercises and applying them to deterrence so that this never comes to pass,” he said. 

Metrick also commended the committee members for stepping out of their comfort zone to confront the high stakes of such a military conflict. 

“When they are confronted with the potential for death and destruction on scales that haven’t been seen in decades, that is sobering …  taking that on and thinking about those hard statesmen- or stateswoman-like choices is difficult. It’s not an easy thing. It’s not a comfortable thing. It’s a necessary thing.”

Urgent call for weapons delivery

A source close to the committee said the wargame reinforced the urgency of U.S. military supplies to Taiwan, saying that in the event of a Chinese invasion, “Resupply is not an option.”

Lawmakers are pushing for the administration to deliver on a backlog of $19 billion in military sales to Taiwan, with U.S. officials saying the delay in munitions delivery is related to production challenges across the board, from pandemic supply chain issues to dormant manufacturing streams. 

The wargame identified long-range missiles as priority weapons for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a weapon rapidly used up in the event of a conflict.

“We run out of LRASMs [stealth anti-ship cruise missiles] quickly,” a source close to the committee told The Hill. “We need to boost munitions production yesterday. Defense industrial base issues must be solved immediately.” 

Another key lesson from the game is the importance of coordination among allies and partners in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, to allow for U.S. military access to key jumping-off points, but also to prepare to put into action a coalition of like-minded states to oppose Chinese aggression. 

“That — as we’ve seen with Ukraine — is possible,” Metrick said. “But it’s really hard and requires, to quote a former colleague, years of a punishing ground game, to use a football metaphor, of just constant engagement.”

Economic impacts of invasion

Lawmakers also confronted global economic consequences of a possible Chinese invasion.

In the game, world markets are in tatters following sanctions imposed on China that cut it off from the SWIFT banking system — which allows for processing international transactions — and commercial shipping ceasing in the Taiwan Strait.

“No ships are going through the region, and supply chains are a complete mess,” the committee source said.

“There will be huge economic consequences for the world if China attacks Taiwan, and companies need to prepare for this. They are not planning for this scenario, and they need to be, or else they risk a dereliction of their fiduciary duties.”

Gallagher, in opening remarks ahead of the wargame, said the business community is not taking the threat of a Taiwan crisis seriously enough. 

“I recently had a meeting with an executive from a leading financial services company who told me that the chance of a Taiwan conflict was ‘near-zero,’” he said.

“If the Chinese do invade Taiwan, any business or investor that is overly dependent on the Chinese market, including both suppliers and customers located there, will suffer. We want American businesses to deal with these risks responsibly, not stick their heads in the sand.”