Ukrainian prime minister arrives in DC at make-or-break moment

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s arrival in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday comes ahead of a make-or-break moment in Ukraine’s defensive fight against Russia, as Kyiv prepares to launch a counteroffensive that will determine the future course of the war.

Shmyhal, in an exclusive interview with The Hill, said that the counteroffensive could be launched as late as the summer, noting that the most intense pressure to start the counteroffensive comes from inside Ukraine.

“We do not feel the pressure from our friends and partners vis-a-vis the start of the offensive,” he said. 

“All of our friends and partners do comprehend clearly that in order to go into counteroffensive, one must be 100 percent, and even more percent prepared to do so.”

His visit also comes amid the backdrop of a major intelligence leak that included dire U.S. assessments of Ukraine’s dwindling air defense ammunition. 

When asked how the document leaks are impacting planning for Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Shmyhal was resolute that “Ukraine will liberate its lands.”  

“We have proven multiple times that we can do it. From our international partners we ask for more military capabilities, like tanks, ammunition, planes, armored vehicles,” he wrote by text message.

Kyiv and Washington are assessing the damage from the classified intelligence leak, which reportedly first appeared on online gaming sites but offered candid details about the state-of-play of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the deep involvement of U.S. assistance. 

Shmyhal spoke to The Hill last week from Kyiv previewing his trip to Washington, where he is attending the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. He answered a follow up question about the intelligence leak on Monday while in transit to the U.S. 

The expectations on a Ukrainian counteroffensive are existential. Ukraine needs to deal Russia a decisive military blow to take back as much territory as possible while also establishing key leverage for potential negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But the intelligence leaks raise questions over whether any tactical plans are compromised and if any vulnerabilities have been exposed. 

Ukrainian forces have been carrying out a grinding and brutal fight to take full control from Russia the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. And addressing shortages of ammunition and weapons — ranging from heavy artillery, armored vehicles, tanks and air defenses — are considered key factors in timing the launch of the counter offensive.

The risks to failure are grave. While President Biden has said the U.S. will support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” war fatigue threatens solidarity — among the American public, between Ukraine’s allies and even among the Ukrainian people. 

“We indeed see losses in terms of economy, in terms of human lives, and these losses indeed exercise a heavy toll on all ourselves,” Shmyhal said, but added, “it doesn’t mean that we do not have bravery left or inspiration left or forces left, to fight until the final victorious moment that we all strive for.”

Shmyhal’s mission in Washington is part of the Ukrainian war strategy — while combat preparations are being made, the prime minister is tasked with rallying partner nations to provide economic support that is as key to Ukraine’s survival as its military defense.

The prime minister will attend the spring meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the joint IMF-World Bank Development Committee. 

Economic assistance to Ukraine largely flows through the World Bank and IMF, which estimates that Kyiv needs upward of $4 billion per month to sustain operating costs.

The assistance pays for, in particular, salaries of Ukrainian teachers, hospital workers, pensioners and goes toward rebuilding critical infrastructure destroyed by Russian missile bombardments — against energy plants and water facilities, to name a few. 

 The U.S. has pledged approximately $22 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022, the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, along with even more on military support. 

These funds are bolstered by other partner nations. The European Union has pledged $19.6 billion to help cover the Ukrainian government’s operating costs for 2023. And Canada last week announced an additional $2.4 billion in economic assistance.

While both Democrats and Republicans have said they support maintaining robust military and economic assistance to Ukraine, the GOP has sought to portray itself as hawkish on oversight. 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) remarks in October that a Republican-controlled House would not write a “blank check” for Ukraine raised anxiety over bipartisan commitment for Kyiv.  

Republicans supportive of U.S. assistance to Ukraine have emphasized they are exercising responsibility to American taxpayers and have reacted positively to reports from watchdog officials at the State Department, U.S. Agency for International Development and the Department of Defense testifying to the responsible use of American assistance to Ukraine. 

“Putting these mechanisms in place from day one has really helped prevent, I think, fraud, waste, abuse,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last month during a hearing with the inspectors general of these agencies.

“That’s why I think we’re getting these positive reports from all three of you.” 

Shmyhal described the military and economic support to Kyiv as going hand in hand to the country’s survival. 

“The logistics in the rear is assisting our army in the frontline,” he said. 

Still, there are partisan divides among Americans related to U.S. aid, with polling indicating that Republican attitudes are slipping compared to Democrats.  

It’s likely to be a central foreign policy debate in campaigns for the 2024 election. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a likely Republican presidential candidate, and former President Trump, who announced his candidacy last year, have both issued criticisms against American assistance for Ukraine. 

DeSantis has described Russia’s war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute,” remarks widely condemned by Republican lawmakers, while Trump has said he would negotiate directly with Putin to end the war.

Shmyhal rejected DeSantis’s remarks.

“Ukraine is a sovereign European state with its international borders that have been internationally recognized back in 1991. We never had and do not have any territorial disputes with Russia.”

And he said he had faith that the American people understood the stakes of the united fight against Russia’s aggression. 

“This is the war for values, for the democratic world values, that the United States and the American people are standing for,” he said.

“And the American people do understand that this support is given to the independence and sovereign state of Ukraine as the victim of the unprovoked Russian aggression.”

Shmyhal is effusive in his praise for the American support, and he recognized that the billions of dollars going to Ukraine were the result of “very difficult and complicated decisions” for Biden and lawmakers. But he did not hesitate to lay out what more Ukrainians believe they need to push back Russia.  

“To be prepared for counteroffensive, we need more artillery, ammunition. We need more middle, or average and long-range missiles, we need tanks and we will need fighter jets,” Shmyhal said.  

Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have raised concern that the Biden administration has taken too long to greenlight Ukrainian military requests — on heavy artillery, tanks and now fighter jets and longer-range missile systems.  

Shmyhal said that Ukraine is also focused on pushing forward the country’s application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The prime minister stood alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in September 2022 announcing Kyiv’s application for expedited membership to the trans-Atlantic alliance.  

Eastern European NATO allies, like Lithuania and Estonia, are joining Kyiv’s calls to streamline Ukraine’s push for membership, saying Ukraine’s addition to NATO is the only way to guarantee the country’s security and deter Russia from ever launching a renewed aggression.

But U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at the NATO foreign minister’s summit in Brussels on April 5 and ahead of a leaders summit in Lithuania in July, sought to keep the focus on helping Ukraine defeat Russia. 

“Of course NATO’s door remains open, there’s no change in that. But we have to be, in this moment, focused intensely on the weeks and months ahead, particularly as Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive,” Blinken said.  

Shmyhal expressed frustration at the repeated tagline of NATO’s door remaining open. 

“Therefore, we as Ukrainian society as a whole, and ourselves as the Ukrainian leadership, we expect during the NATO Summit in Vilnius this summer, we shall hear something more specific and concrete rather than ‘the doors of NATO remain open for Ukraine,’” he said.