Ukraine’s latest counteroffensive fuels optimism about Russian defeat

Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive against Russian troops in the eastern region of the country last week, forcing the Russians to retreat from key cities and settlements.

While Russia continues to hold onto large parts of Ukraine, experts say the Ukrainian rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv could be a sign of a major shift in the war.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN anchor Dana Bash the gains indicated a weakening Russian position.

“Let’s see how this plays out,” Warner said on “State of the Union” on Sunday. “The Ukrainians are demonstrating their will to fight, and that’s one of the things you can never fully estimate no matter how good your intelligence is. And, candidly, the Russians’ inability and lack of supplies to their troops is playing out as well.”

Warner noted Russia had expected a counteroffensive in the south, not in the northeastern Kharkiv region, where its forces were forced out of at least 40 settlements.

Fighting continues in the regional cities of Kupiansk and Izium, according to an intelligence update from the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remained optimistic on Sunday. Zelensky told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that his troops are “slowly, gradually moving forward” until Ukraine reclaims all of the lost territory.

“We have no other way. And it’s not our weakness. I believe it’s our strength,” Zelensky said. “Because Russia does have a way out. They can go back home. We have only this home to defend.”

The counteroffensive could provoke a more aggressive reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who last week promised to “carry it through” to the end, in response to a question about the war.

Oleg Nikolenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tweeted Sunday that Russia attacked power stations and critical infrastructure in “an act of desperation” following “immense losses and retreat in eastern Ukraine.”

“Even with their terrorist tactics, they are doomed to lose this war,” Nikolenko wrote.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive offers the latest cause for optimism in its efforts to expel Russian forces.

When Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, his forces launched a blitz offensive with attacks across the country.

Ukraine pushed Russian troops out of the capitol region of Kyiv within a few months, forcing Russia to regroup and concentrate on taking territory in the east.

While Russia succeeded in taking over key eastern cities — including large parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — Ukraine’s counteroffensive has erased significant gains achieved over the spring and summer.

The regional head of the Luhansk tweeted Saturday that Ukrainian troops were headed into the city of Lysychansk, a major city Russia captured over the summer.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Russia is likely losing the larger war effort because of “unclear goals.”

“Russia needed to be able to defend an enormous front line and control the areas it was occupying. Not an easy task,” Lee tweeted.

“It was never clear how Russia could achieve conflict termination, especially since Ukraine had a morale advantage,” he added.

Mick Ryan, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a Twitter thread Sunday that if Ukrainians overtake Kupiansk, a key rail hub, that would “compromise Russian operations on their eastern front.”

Ryan also said the surprise counteroffensive “introduces a larger psychological issue with Russians fighting in the east.”

“The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble,” Ryan said. “Ukraine now has the initiative in this war, as well as tactical and operational momentum going into winter. The war is not over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning.”

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story misidentified the Sunday show on which Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) appeared.