On The Money: Trump says stimulus deal will happen after election | Holiday spending estimates lowest in four years | Domestic workers saw jobs, hours plummet due to COVID

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THE BIG DEAL—Trump says stimulus deal will happen after election: President Trump acknowledged Tuesday that an agreement on a coronavirus relief stimulus package would not be cemented until after Election Day, but predicted that a deal could be reached.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump insisted his administration would still be willing to negotiate with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) following the election on Nov. 3.

Even so, Trump accused Pelosi of seeking “bailouts” for states and cities run by Democrats and predicting that the failed negotiations would cost Democrats the House majority.

“Nancy Pelosi is only interested in bailing out badly-run, crime-ridden Democrat cities and states. That’s all she is interested in,” Trump said. “She is not interested in helping the people.”

“After the election, we will get the best stimulus package you have ever seen,” Trump continued. “I think we are going to take back the House because of her.”

Reality check: It is highly unlikely that Republicans will reclaim the House. Polling shows commanding leads for most incumbent Democrats and the Cook Political Report predicts that Democrats will expand their majority in 2020.

The state of play: 

• Election Day is a week from today, so the chances of the House, White House and Senate agreeing on a bipartisan deal, putting it into legislation and enacting it into law are slim to none. 
• But talks have continued. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s lead negotiator, spoke again on Monday, after which Pelosi aide Drew Hammill said that House Democrats were still waiting on the administration to accept their language on a national plan for COVID-19 testing.

The Hill’s Morgan Chalfant catches us up here.

Read more: White House hoping for COVID-19 relief deal ‘within weeks’: spokeswoman

LEADING THE DAY

Holiday spending estimates lowest in four years: poll: Anticipated spending on holiday gifts is expected to drop significantly this year amid a retail slump due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday.

• American shoppers surveyed between Sept. 30 and Oct. 15 reported that they expect to spend an average of $805 on gifts this year, down from last year’s estimate of $942 and the lowest October holiday spending projection Gallup has measured since 2016.
• Additionally, 28 percent of those surveyed in the new poll said they will be spending less on holiday gifts than they did in 2019, compared to just 12 percent who anticipated spending more.
• According to Gallup, the percentage of those planning to spend less is the highest it has been since 2012.

The Hill’s Celine Castronuovo has more here.

Spanish-speaking domestic workers saw jobs, hours plummet due to COVID-19: More than a third of Spanish-speaking nannies, caretakers and house cleaners did not have jobs in September and roughly 75 percent were not compensated when they lost work, according to a report released Tuesday by the nonprofit National Domestic Workers Alliance (NDWA).

The NDWA polled more than 20,000 Spanish-speaking domestic workers via an online chat tool since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March and found dire consequences for some of the most vulnerable workers.

• More than 90 percent of domestic workers lost jobs by the end of March due to COVID-19, according to the report. 
• Joblessness among domestic workers peaked at 68 percent in mid-May before dropping to 30 percent in late August and rising to 38 percent by Sept. 18.
• Both part- and full-time workers saw their hours drop after the pandemic, and 75 percent of workers were not paid for canceled jobs. 

“This pandemic has been devastating for our workforce, creating dramatic losses in jobs and income with limited access to forms of relief for domestic workers who have continued to work through the pandemic as essential workers,” said NDWA Executive Director Ai-jen Poo on a call with reporters.

I break down the report here.

GOOD TO KNOW

• The leaders of the House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at helping people save for retirement, in an effort to build upon legislation enacted late last year.
• Washington City Paper: “Restaurant Workers Have Been Waiting Five Weeks for Extended Unemployment Benefits”
• President Trump is weighing whether to issue an executive order requiring an economic analysis of fracking, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing unnamed senior administration officials.
• The Washington Post: “Rising 401(k) balances so often cheered by Trump are almost meaningless to most Americans, data show”

ODDS AND ENDS

• Amazon plans to hire 100,000 workers for the 2020 holiday season, the company announced Tuesday.