Happy Tuesday and welcome back to Overnight Finance, where unlike the House, we’re still talking to the Senate about bank deregulation. I’m Sylvan Lane, and here’s your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.
See something I missed? Let me know at slane@digital-stage.thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.
THE BIG DEAL: The chances of the Senate and House striking a deal to amend the Dodd-Frank Act appear to be fading. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said he’s not holding talks with key senators on making changes to the banking bill set to pass the Senate this week.
The Senate bill has more than enough support to pass the upper chamber, but faces opposition from House conservatives who want the measure to include more of their ideas.
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K Street sources told The Hill that the bill faces a growing chance of dying in the House unless senators agree to go to a conference with the lower chamber. The Senate Democrats backing the bill explicitly said last week that they do not want a conference committee and will drop the bill if the House makes too many changes.
“We don’t believe that would be helpful, to go to conference,” said Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), last week. “What we have and what we’ve negotiated here is a very good package.”
“There are some out there who say ‘this bill is going to look completely different when it comes back from the House.’ It may. If it does, than I guess we’re done,” added Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) who backs the bill, last week.
“I believe we have the White House’s support on it. And hopefully they’ll influence the House not to screw it up.”
A spokeswoman for Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) declined to comment on whether he’d be willing to conference with the House. Press aides for Senate Dems backing the bill pointed to Tester’s comments from last week when asked if they’d reconsider a conference committee. I’ve got everything you need to know here.
What comes next: The Senate is on track to pass the bill this week and is aiming to pass the substitute amendment and underlying bill tomorrow. Both parties will need to strike a deal on which of the more than 100 amendments will get voted before the Senate sends the bill to the House.
House Republican leaders will then have to decide whether they’ll bring up the Senate bill for a vote as is, try to amend the bill beforehand or ask for a conference committee. Right now, only option #1 would be acceptable to the Senate.
On tap tomorrow
- House Foreign Affairs Committee: Hearing entitled “Modernizing Export Controls: Protecting Cutting-Edge Technology and U.S. National Security,” 10 a.m.
- House Financial Services Committee: Hearing on cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings, 10 a.m.
- House Budget Committee: Hearing on Congressional Budget Office oversight, 10 a.m.
- House Rules Committee: Hearing on two financial services bills, 3 p.m.
LEADING THE DAY
Trump says Kudlow has good shot to replace Cohn: President Trump on Tuesday said Larry Kudlow has a good chance of taking the helm of the White House’s National Economic Council.
Trump told reporters ahead of a trip to California that he is taking a hard look at Kudlow to replace former top economic adviser Gary Cohn.
“I’m looking at Larry Kudlow very strongly,” he told reporters on the South Lawn.
“I’ve known him a long time. We don’t agree on everything,” he said. “But in this case, I think that’s good.”
Trump, who argued he wants differing opinions in the White House, said Kudlow has “come around to believing in tariffs as also a negotiating point.”
“I’m renegotiating great deals. Without tariffs, we wouldn’t do nearly as well.” The Hill’s Vicki Needham looks into how that dynamic might work out.
McConnell shoots down vote against Trump tariffs: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) indicated Tuesday that the Senate won’t try to use legislation to halt President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, noting it’s improbable the president would sign such a bill.
“I like to use floor time in the Senate for things that actually have a chance to become law. … I think it’s highly unlikely we would be dealing with that in a legislative way,” McConnell said.
Trump announced late last week that he would slap steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum despite days of public pleas and frantic behind-the-scenes work from congressional Republicans for him to back down.
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) introduced legislation on Monday to nullify the tariffs. But any bill would face an uphill battle given that it would either need Trump’s signature or enough support to override a veto. The Hill’s Jordain Carney has more.
K Street shake-up: The Financial Services Roundtable (FSR) and the Clearing House Association, two major finance industry advocacy groups, are combining.
The announcement comes one month after FSR’s chief executive, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, announced that he would be stepping down from the organization. Pawlenty is considering another run for governor.
The merged entity will have a new name that has not yet been decided, according to FSR. A spokeswoman told The Hill that discussions about the merger have been occurring for a “short time,” but would not provide a specific date.
Greg Baer, the president of the Clearing House Association, will helm the new group.
While the two groups complete the merger, Chris Feeney, who leads FSR’s technology policy division, will serve as the group’s interim chief executive.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, who chairs FSR’s board of directors, said that the organizations — which have some overlapping members — “will be stronger together.”
Elizabeth’s warrin’: The Senate Democratic Conference is splitting apart in an angry debate over a banking reform bill that has ended months of party unity in opposition to President Trump’s agenda.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the Senate’s most vocal Wall Street watchdog, is taking a hard line against the bill and drawing complaints from moderate Democratic colleagues who support the bill and worry she’s putting them in a tough political position. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton takes us inside the battle within the Democratic Party.
MARKET CHECK: Tense. All three major U.S stock indexes closed with losses today, spurred by falling tech shares and the abrupt firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. The Dow Jones industrial and the Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell by 0.7 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1 percent.
GOOD TO KNOW
- Last February’s budget deficit was the biggest since 2012, the Treasury Department announced Tuesday.
- House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said Tuesday that Democrats are pushing for a sweeping government spending package that excludes all extraneous provisions — even those that Democrats want.
- GOP Sens. Steve Daines (Mont.) and Ted Cruz (Texas) urged lawmakers not to add online sales tax legislation to an omnibus spending bill, arguing that doing so would hurt small businesses.
- The new Republican tax law boosted confidence among the nation’s top CEOs to a 15-year high in the first three months of the year, according to a new survey released on Tuesday.
- Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent last month, in line with Fed forecasts and below levels some feared could lead to runaway inflation.
- The United States spent twice as much on health care than ten other high-income countries in 2016, largely because of the high costs of prescription drugs, administrative overhead and labor, according to a study released Tuesday.
- U.S. farmers voiced their opposition to President Trump’s recently announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an ad set to run for at least the next month on morning news programs that Trump is known to watch.
ODDS AND ENDS
- Politico talks to “the financial whisperer to Trump’s America” about the economic anxiety behind the shifting political winds.
- The makers of Four Loko, the alcoholic energy drink feared by parents of millenials across the country, think Amazon should open its new office in D.C. because the district has the best late night eats in the country. Overnight Finance does not endorse these findings.