OVERNIGHT FINANCE: Warren taking on Wal-Mart

TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: ELIZABETH WARREN VS. WAL-MART. The progressive potential 2016 presidential candidate — and Senate leadership’s newest member — will host a Congressional briefing Tuesday on “the Walmart economy.”

— WHO: Warren will be joined by liberal labor groups, including Demos, the Labor Project for Working Families and the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW).

{mosads}— WHAT: Per the release from the liberal groups: “The briefing will highlight Walmart’s low pay, manipulation of scheduling and illegal threats to workers who are standing up for Walmart to publically commit to $15 an hour and full-time, consistent hours.”

— POLITICALLY, IT’S ALL ABOUT LABOR AND 2016. Tomorrow’s event is another step by Warren to align herself with labor groups, which could serve her well should she decide to run for president.

— FLASHBACK, then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) at a Jan. 21, 2008, debate against Hillary Clinton: “While I was working on those streets watching those folks see their jobs shift overseas, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board at Wal-Mart.” [CNN transcript: http://cnn.it/11l3vW5.]

THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Anybody else heading to The Hill’s New Members Welcome Party tonight? Tweet:@kevcirilli;email: kcirilli@digital-stage.thehill.com; and subscribe: http://digital-stage.thehill.com/signup/48.

QUOTABLE, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on talk of another government shutdown: “Republican leaders want to work together to keep the government funded. We’ve heard there will be no government shut down, but some in their caucus are saying some scary things.” Ramsey Cox for The Hill: http://bit.ly/1yNs2OS.

— ON-TAP FOR THE WEEK, it’s all about shutdown watch, via me: All eyes return to Capitol Hill this week, as the financial services industry watches to see which loose ends lawmakers will tie up in the lame duck. http://bit.ly/1xfUKte.

BIG QUESTION – – > CAN LANDRIEU GET TO 60 VOTES? The Hill’s Laura Barron-Lopez: “Embattled Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and other supporters of building the Keystone XL pipeline appear to be one vote short of the 60 they need to win a key vote on the project on Tuesday. Landrieu has 59 votes backing legislation to approve the project…

“The effort is crucial to Landrieu because of her runoff election in December against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who also backs the pipeline. Landrieu is seen as a decided underdog in the race, and Senate Democrats have scheduled Tuesday’s vote to try to give her a boost.” http://bit.ly/1t03WN7.

TERRORISM INSURANCE WATCH: Would a short-term deal be bad for business? Congress must reauthorize its Terrorism Risk Insurance program (TRIA) by year’s end or it will shut down. The program provides a backstop for the insurance market. But Tea Partiers, led by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) are pushing for reforms because they say taxpayers will be on the hook to pick up the tab in the event of a large-scale terrorist attack.

Hensarling appears to be headed toward a short-term TRIA reauthorization that would allow him to continue to drum up support for the reforms, but the business community isn’t too happy about it.

— Chris Versace for Fox Business: “A short-term renewal is no better than no renewal at all. It would be the equivalent of throwing a monkey wrench into the economic gears of the construction and building industry. If we do get a temporary renewal — a band aid if you will — we could shares of Jacobs Engineering (JEC), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Granite Construction (GVA) come under pressure.” http://fxn.ws/11lK2ET.

EXTENDERS WATCH — WINDS OF CHANGE? Bloomberg reports: “The wind energy tax credit, championed by environmentalists, Democrats, a few Republicans and companies including General Electric Co. and Siemens AG, may be imperiled as its most important backers in Congress lose clout. The industry’s tax break expired at the end of 2013, and lawmakers such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden will have less influence starting in January with Republicans in control of both chambers.

— GOP CROSSHAIRS? “Some Republicans are eyeing the break as a potential target now, as a way to take a stand against President Barack Obama’s climate policies and a few tax breaks. They’ll get their first chance in the coming weeks as lawmakers negotiate the fate of dozens of expired tax provisions and try to reach a deal before this Congress adjourns in mid-December.”

— BOTTOM LINE: “Now and perhaps again in January, the wind credit will be a test case for how targeted tax breaks — particularly those championed by Obama — will fare when Republicans run both chambers of Congress.” http://bit.ly/1BJtmYI.

THE RECESSION’S PERMANENT SCARS, via Pedro Nicolaci Da Costa: “Harsh downturns tend to permanently lower the economy’s growth potential, according to new research from the Federal Reserve that upends conventional theory and suggests early and aggressive policy action is advisable when dealing with recessions.

“‘Output typically does not return to pre-crisis trend following recessions, especially deep ones,’ write Federal Reserve board staffers Robert Martin, Teyanna Munyan and Beth Anne Wilson.”

“A lower postrecession potential rate of growth, however, also implies the central bank may have less room to leave interest rates very low than it otherwise would. Policy makers tend to think about the appropriate level of interest rates in part by trying to estimate how far the economy is running beneath or above its full potential–the point at which inflation pressures start to build.” Today’s must-read: http://on.wsj.com/11ll08E.

CASTRO’S FIRST WIN AT HUD – NO MORE BAILOUTS. Vicki Needham for The Hill: “A top government regulator for the housing industry will not need another taxpayer bailout this year. The Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) balance sheet has moved back into positive territory after the Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund rose in value by nearly $6 billion, giving it an overall value of $4.8 billion, according to a new report.

“The improvement will prevent FHA from needing another cash infusion from the federal Treasury. In 2013, for the first time in the agency’s 80-year history, the FHA fund required $1.7 billion in taxpayer help to make up for loan losses and a reverse mortgage program that weighed on its finances.”http://bit.ly/1uAkKyK.

ON-TAP FOR TOMORROW: Former-Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) will be speaking at Third Way Wednesday morning at 8:45 a.m.

STOCK WATCH: S&P SOARS. Caroline Valetkevitch for Reuters: “The S&P 500 edged up to close at a record high on Monday as deal activity worth $100 billion offset concerns about overseas growth after Japan’s economy slipped into recession. Shares of Baker Hughes, up 8.9 percent, and Allergan, up 5.3 percent, gave the S&P 500 its biggest boost after Halliburton said it would buy Baker Hughes and Allergan agreed to be bought by Actavis.” http://reut.rs/1un4fEO.

FIRST LOOK — WHY DO DEMOCRATS PAY LOWER MUTUAL FUND FEES? Dr. Hamed Dadgour, resident data scientist at Person Capital, with a new study:  “Digitally savvy states tend to skew Democrat… Digitally savvy investors tend to pay lower mutual funds [fees] and live in blue states. Blue states tend to host the most populous cities in the U.S. …Urban cities tend to be more tech-savvy, as defined by having more broadband and smartphone penetration.” Full study: http://bit.ly/1ESKxU1

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR: FED MEETS WITH BIG BANKS, via Reuters: “The Federal Reserve said it is hosting a meeting on Monday with banks and regulators to discuss the development of a reference rate alternative to LIBOR, the London interbank rate that was at the center of a global rigging scandal.

“Expected participants in the discussion include Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and central bank officials from England, Europe and Japan. The Fed said that the meeting, held at the New York Fed, is a step toward implementing recommendations issued by a Financial Stability Board report in July.” http://reut.rs/1ESKXda.

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