Six in 10 now say US recession very likely: poll

More than 6 in 10 respondents in a survey released Thursday say a U.S. recession is “very likely” amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The Gallup poll found 61 percent of people surveyed think a recession is very likely, compared to just 38 percent a little less than two weeks ago. In the most recent survey, 31 percent say a recession is somewhat likely, and only 8 percent do not think a recession will occur. 

Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to believe a recession is coming, and that trend was confirmed in Thursday’s poll. About 8 in 10 Democrats say it is very likely, compared to slightly more than 1 in 3 Republicans. 

Fifteen percent of Democrats say a recession is somewhat likely, compared to 46 percent of Republicans. 

Overall, 52 percent of U.S. adults say it is very likely or somewhat likely their household will have “major financial struggles” because of the pandemic’s economic effects. In the March 13-16 polling, 40 percent had said the same. 

Gallup’s poll comes on the same day that the Department of Labor released data saying more than 3 million Americans applied for unemployment last week, as the economic impacts of the pandemic begin to rise. 

The poll utilized the Gallup panel, which surveys U.S. adults 18 and older using probability-based, random sampling methods. A total of 3,555 people were surveyed March 20-22, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.