About one-third of economists expect recession in 2020: survey

Approximately one-third of economists predict the U.S. will enter a recession in 2020, according to a survey published Monday.

Thirty-eight percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics forecasted the world’s largest economy will enter a recession next year, a 4 percentage point decline from a similar survey in February.

{mosads}Thirty-four percent of economists predicted the next recession will begin in 2021, a 9-point uptick since February. Two percent of economists said a downturn will begin this year, down from 10 percent in February.

The 226 economists, who mainly work for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1, before increased warning signs in recent days about a looming recession.

The survey results were first reported by The Associated Press. 

The economists also expressed concern that President Trump’s tariffs and higher budget deficits could hurt the economy, the AP reports.

Trump and administration officials, however, have been dismissive of widespread warnings of a recession after the increasing tariffs imposed on China during an escalating trade war between the two nations. Officials have dismissed claims that tariffs are hurting American farmers and consumers, maintaining that they only hurt China despite conflicting claims from experts and struggling farmers.

“I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well,” Trump told reporters Sunday before departing from New Jersey. A strong economy is crucial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign. 

Just 5 percent of the economists surveyed said a comprehensive trade deal would result from the latest round of U.S. and China trade negotiations, the AP reports. Four percent said a superficial agreement is possible and almost 25 percent expected no agreement.

–Updated at 10:14 a.m.