CFOs see growth slowing, but no recession by 2020

A survey of the nation’s chief financial officers found that they expect economic growth to slow, but not dip into a recession through 2020.

“75 percent of CFOs last quarter said they expected a slowdown of US economic growth by the end of 2020,” the summary of Deloitte’s CFO Signals survey for the second quarter found.

{mosads}The expectations for lower growth were centered on U.S. trade policy, slowing growth in China and Europe, and the natural ebb and flow of the business and credit cycles.

“The silver lining, however, was that few expected a recession — in fact, only 15 percent expected an extended decline in economic activity,” the report said.

The survey covers North American CFOs from large companies, and is not a scientific survey, but gives a glimpse as to what the business community is expecting.

If they’re right, it could be good news for President Trump heading into the 2020 election.

The Trump administration promised sustained 3 percent economic growth each year, a figure the economy has not reached in any of the calendar years since he took office. But even if growth slows, a growing economy and low unemployment could serve as tailwinds for Trump next November.

A recession in the months leading up to the election, on the other hand, could tip the scales against Trump.

The business community has frequently cited Trump’s trade policy and tariffs as a central concern, which could erode some of his support. Some studies have estimated that the effects of Trump’s tariffs have neutralized the effects of the massive tax cuts he ushered in at the end of 2017, and warn that it could get worse.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend at the G-20 summit in Japan to attempt to break a deadlock in trade negotiations.