Survey: Few people think they’re getting a tax cut under Trump’s law

Few Americans think they will pay less in taxes under President Trump’s 2017 law, according to a new survey, despite estimates that most people will get a tax cut.

Results from an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Monday found that 17 percent of respondents expect to pay less in taxes, 28 percent expect to pay more, 27 percent expect to pay about the same and 28 percent said they didn’t know.

{mosads}This is the first year people are filing taxes under Trump’s 2017 tax law, and the results suggest the current filing season may not have much effect on people’s thoughts about whether their taxes were affected by the GOP measure.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey from January 2018 found that 19 percent of respondents said they expected to pay less in taxes under the law, with 26 percent expecting to pay more.

This week’s survey results are the latest indication that Republicans struggle to sell the tax-cut law to the public. Polls generally have shown more people disapproving of the law than supporting it.

Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated that in calendar year 2019, 48 percent of taxpayers will get a tax cut of more than $500, while 17 percent will see a cut between $100 and $500. Only 5.5 percent of taxpayers are estimated to get a tax increase of at least $100.

Analysts estimate that most Americans are getting a tax cut under the 2017 law, though for some it may be a very small cut.

Many taxpayers focus on their refunds, which reflect the extent to which someone overpaid in taxes over the course of the year. The average refund amount so far this year is similar to the amount through the same point in 2018, but refund sizes often depend on a person’s individual situation.

NBC News and The Wall Street Journal surveyed 1,000 adults from March 23-27. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.