86 percent of CEOs expect recession in next 12 months: survey

Eighty-six percent of global CEOs expect a recession to hit in the next year, although most believe it will be mild and short, according to a new KPMG survey.

The poll found that 14 percent of CEOs viewed a recession as a pressing concern, up from 9 percent earlier this year. Pandemic fatigue, which was cited by 15 percent of respondents, topped the list.

Despite growing concerns about a recession, 71 percent expressed confidence in the global economy’s growth prospects over the next few years, a figure that rose 11 percentage points from earlier this year.

About 85 percent of respondents indicated they had confidence in their organization’s growth over the next three years, specifically.

“Once-in-a-generation issues — a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and financial difficulties — have come in short succession and taken a toll on the optimism of global CEOs,” said Bill Thomas, KPMG’s CEO. “While it’s unsurprising the economic climate is now the top concern for business leaders, it’s reassuring to see high levels of confidence among executives in their own companies and their longer-term prospects for growth.”

The increased expectations for a recession come as the Federal Reserve and other central banks aggressively increase interest rates, fueling concerns that the monetary tightening could tip the economy into a recession.

The Fed has increased their baseline interest rate by 75 basis points three consecutive times. 

Fed leaders have vowed further increases to curb price growth after inflation hit a 40-year high earlier this year, warning doing so will likely require an uptick in unemployment.

The new poll found that 73 percent of CEOs believed a recession will disrupt anticipated growth. About three-quarters — 76 percent — said they have already taken precautionary steps ahead of a recession, and 71 percent predicted it will impact company earnings by up to 10 percent.

“The events of recent years have created real turbulence for the business community,” Thomas said. “Our findings should provide some cautious optimism that, in contending with and overcoming these ordeals, executives are emerging more confident in their companies’ resilience and hopefully the markets will follow suit, mitigating some of the greater uncertainties we’ve all felt.”

The survey was conducted with 1,325 CEOs from July 12 to Aug. 24. All respondents’ companies have annual revenue above $500 million.