Climate change could drive up US flood costs 26 percent by 2050: study

Financial losses due to increased flooding incidents — driven by climate change — will rise by 26 percent in the U.S. by 2050, taking the greatest toll on disadvantaged communities, a new study has found.

The study, published on Monday in Nature Climate Change, forecasted that average annual flood losses would surge by 26.4 percent from $32.1 billion today to $40.6 billion in less than 30 years. Predicted population changes are also expected to play a significant role in flood risk — leading to fourfold increases in comparison to the effects of climate change alone, according to the authors.

“Climate change combined with shifting populations present a double whammy of flood risk danger and the financial implications are staggering,” lead author Oliver Wing, of the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment, said in a statement.

To draw their conclusions, the scientists said they analyzed nationwide property asset data and detailed flood projections to develop a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of flood risk throughout the U.S. They based their estimates of financial loss — damage to homes, businesses and their contents — on 2021-dollar values, meaning that the actual numbers would be likely be much higher following inflation.

Carrying out the research in partnership with colleagues in New York, California and Philadelphia, the authors integrated these new models into their work to “give a much more accurate picture of future flooding and how populations will be affected,” according to Wing.

While the researchers found that poorer communities with a proportionally larger white makeup currently face the most danger, they observed that future flood risks will have a greater impact on Black populations along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

“The mapping clearly indicates Black communities will be disproportionately affected in a warming world, in addition to the poorer white communities which predominantly bear the historical risk,” Wing said. 

“Both of these findings are of significant concern,” he continued. “The research is a call to action for adaptation and mitigation work to be stepped up to reduce the devastating financial impact flooding wreaks on people’s lives.”