NOAA hurricane forecast predicts record number of storms in 2020

The latest update to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal hurricane and tropical storm outlook predicts a record number of named storms for 2020.

The updated forecast predicts 2020 will see 19 to 25 named storms with winds greater than 39 mph, according to a release from NOAA.

Of those storms, NOAA estimates seven to 11 will become hurricanes with wind speeds at or exceeding 74 mph.

The forecast covers all of the entire six-month tropical storm season ending on Nov. 30 and predicts at least three to six storms will become major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes.

NOAA’s *Updated* 2020 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason Outlook now calls for: 19-25 named storms, of which 7-11 could become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes.

Graphics at https://t.co/mJuHVNZbnG @NWS @NWSCPC #HurricaneOutlook #ItOnlyTakesOne pic.twitter.com/GUNX3vany8

— NOAA (@NOAA) August 6, 2020

NOAA forms its weather predictions using the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the hurricane season.

“This year, we expect more, stronger and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” Gerry Bell, a lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said.

This season has already broken records over average hurricane seasons, with nine named storms already formed in 2020.

Most hurricane storm seasons only produce two named storms by early August, with the ninth named storm typically appearing by around Oct. 4, according to NOAA historical records.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the data showed one of NOAA’s most active future-hurricane outlooks in its 22-year history.

“We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant and being ready to take action when necessary,” Ross said.

A meteorologist research team from Colorado State University released a study this week predicting this hurricane season would be nearly 190 percent of the average season with a total of 12 hurricanes, five of which would classify as major hurricanes.