Earth warming at record rate, researchers say

The Earth’s warming rate hit a record high last year, though the data did not show climate change is significantly accelerating, according to research published Tuesday.

According to the “Indicators of Global Climate Change” report, last year’s rate of warming reached 0.47 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0.26 degrees Celsius, per decade, up from 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0.25 Celsius.

While not a major jump, study lead author Piers Forster, a Leeds University climate scientist, noted to The Associated Press that it makes last year’s rate the highest ever.

The group of 57 scientists pointed to the combination of greenhouse gas emissions and decline in aerosols as the main contributors to this high rate of warming, while noting greenhouse gas emissions have not risen past prepandemic levels.

“If you look at this world accelerating or going through a big tipping point, things aren’t doing that,” Forster told the AP. “Things are increasing in temperature and getting worse in sort of exactly the way we predicted.”

2023 marked the hottest year ever recorded, with average land and ocean temperatures reaching 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration confirmed earlier this year.

Under the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world agreed to try to limit future warming to a threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius — 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit — though this is for long-term temperature measurements rather than a single month or year.

If the Earth continues to produce the same amount of carbon dioxide emissions as the start of this year, the report predicted the temperature will break the Paris Agreement threshold in less than five years.

Tuesday’s report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, said 2023 was 1.43 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 average, with 1.21 degrees of that contributed to by human activity. The remainder of the temperature change can be pinned on natural factors such as El Niño.

Over a 10-year period, the world’s temperature increased by about 2.14 degrees Fahrenheit — 1.19 degrees Celsius — since preindustrial times.

El Niño conditions arrived early in June last year, ahead of its typical time frame in late summer or early fall. Forecasters are predicting El Niño will likely get warmer and cause even higher temperatures this year.

The coalition of scientists behind the Tuesday report was created to provide annual scientific updates between every seven-to-eight-year major United Nations scientific assessment, the AP noted.

The Associated Press contributed.