Defense & National Security — Brazil gets its own Jan. 6-style insurrection  

Attacks against Brazil’s government institutions by thousands of the former president’s supporters have drawn shock and condemnation from the United States and other countries, with concerns that similar violence in Washington, D.C., provided the playbook for the antidemocratic violence. 

We’ll share what we know about the attacks and why they may have happened, plus the outcomes of a new war game that simulates a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and the latest on the ground in Ukraine. 

This is Defense & National Security, your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

What to know about Brazil’s Jan. 6-like insurrection 

Thousands of supporters of Brazil’s former president this week attacked Brazil’s government institutions, drawing shock and condemnation from President Biden and other world leaders. 

Brazilian police on Monday appeared to have suppressed much of the violence that broke out the day before, where supporters of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsanoro targeted for destruction Congress, the Supreme Court and the Presidential Palace. 

Hundreds arrested: Hundreds of the rioters are reported to have been arrested, with that number expected to rise while Brazil’s newly inaugurated President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — who took office on Jan. 1 — promised to carry out justice against those who committed violence. 

What sparked the violence?: The attacks on Sunday came one week after Lula was sworn into office but followed at least two months of protests where Bolsonaro supporters contested the former one-term president’s defeat, claiming without evidence a rigged and stolen election.  

• But it so far remains unclear what sparked the unprecedented storming and destruction of government buildings on Sunday, in particular. 
  
• While Bolsonaro did not publicly claim his election defeat was fraud, he did not publicly concede to Lula. Bolsonaro’s supporters appeared to latch on to the narrative that the former president was unjustly denied his seat in power, and called for military intervention. 

Bolsonaro out of Brazil: Bolsonaro was reported to have arrived in the U.S. around December 30, two days before Lula’s inauguration. On Monday, he was reported to have been hospitalized in Florida for abdominal pain. 

But the timing of Bolsonaro’s arrival in the U.S. — with the tensions among his supporters already high and under investigation in at least four probes by the Brazilian Supreme Court — has prompted calls from some Democratic U.S. lawmakers to expel the former president. 

No requests, yet: State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday that the U.S. had not received any specific requests “just yet” from the Brazilian government in response to a question on whether Bolsonaro would be extradited or deported from Florida.  

“If there is a law enforcement matter that needs to be adjudicated between the United States and Brazil, we have well-honed, well-practiced processes for doing so, and we’re prepared to do that. But … we haven’t received any specific requests just yet,” he said. 

Read the full story here 

More from The Hill: 

• Biden speaks to Brazil’s Lula, invites him to Washington in show of support 
  
• US lawmakers condemn Jan. 6-style rioting at Brazilian government offices 

Simulation predicts ‘heavy’ losses if Taiwan invaded

A war games simulation of a full-scale Chinese invasion of the self-governing island nation of Taiwan predicts “heavy losses” for all parties likely to be involved, including the U.S. and Japan. 

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran the simulation of a 2026 Chinese invasion of Taiwan exactly 24 times, drawing on historical data and operational research. The simulation’s events are included in an extensive report released Monday. 

A high cost: In most scenarios, an alliance between the U.S., Japan and Taiwan defeated China after three or four weeks of fighting — but at the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of troops. 

• Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program and an author of the report, told The Hill the big takeaway from the simulation is that Taiwan can be sustained as an independent nation. 
  
• “But the cost is very high,” he added. 

Recommendations: In the report, Cancian recommended policies and efforts to deter a future invasion, noting that even if a war is seen as risky for China, the nation still might consider a direct conflict. 

“Although our analysis indicates that the United States and Taiwan would prevail and inflict heavy casualties, it’s possible to imagine the Chinese are looking at it differently,” Cancian explained. “That’s why we recommend enhancing deterrence so we don’t get into this situation in the first place.” 

Some background: In recent years, China has increased its aggressive rhetoric against Taiwan, a democratic, independent country that broke from the mainland in 1949. The ruling Chinese Communist Party, however, sees the island as part of its territory. 

The U.S. abides by the One China principle, which says Taiwan is part of China, but commits to informal relations with the island nation, including supplying arms for Taipei. 

Conditions: While the U.S. and Taiwan prevail in most scenarios, there are some conditions for success, according to CSIS, including that Taiwan must hold the line and that U.S. forces must have access to bases in Japan. 

Read more on the report here 

Ukrainian city holding out ‘against all odds’ 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the city of Bakhmut, in the eastern Donbas region, is holding its own despite widespread Russian destruction in the area. 

“Bakhmut is holding out against all odds,” Zelensky said in his address Sunday. “And although most of the city is destroyed by Russian strikes, our warriors repel constant attempts at Russian offensive there.” 

On the ground: Reuters reported that Ukrainian officials said they sent reinforcements to Soledar, a small town near Bakhmut, to repel attacks from the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Zelensky said in his address that the situation in Soledar is “extremely hard,” as the town faced even more destruction than neighboring Bakhmut. 

“There is no such piece of land near these two cities, where the occupier would not have given his life for the crazy ideas of the masters of the Russian regime,” he said in the address. “This is one of the bloodiest places on the frontline.” 

Dismissed claims: A Ukrainian school dismissed Russia’s claims that its strike killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops stationed there, instead saying that the strike only damaged windows and classrooms. The vocational school, which is located in Kramatorsk, was named as a target by Russia, which said that the strikes killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers, according to The Associated Press. 

The strike was in retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on Makiivka on New Year’s Eve, Russian authorities said. That attack, which killed at least 89 Russian soldiers, was one of the deadliest attacks led by Ukraine during the now 11-month war. 

Read the rest here 

ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

• The Surface Navy Association will hold its annual National Symposium with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Adm. Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, delivering the keynote address, beginning at 8 a.m.   
• The German Marshall Fund of the United States will host a virtual conversation with Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu at 9 a.m. 
• The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies will hold a virtual discussion with retired Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, former commander of the U.S. European Command and former NATO supreme allied commander Europe, at 11 a.m. 
• The Washington Institute for Near East Policy will hold a talk on “The state of the global terror threat in 2023,” with U.S. National Counterterrorism Center Director Christine Abizaid, at12:30 p.m. 
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a talk on “Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine: Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernization,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, and former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, at 1 p.m. 

WHAT WE’RE READING

• Could the next great space race involve China? 
• GOP’s ‘weaponization’ panel would have power to review those probing Trump 
• End of Jan. 6 panel opens new chapter for Department of Justice 
• Senator says Russia-Ukraine conflict ‘essentially trench warfare’ 
• Ex-NATO chief: Russian forces in Ukraine will be ‘burned through and exhausted’ by end of winter 
• Iran executes two more people in connection with protests 

OP-EDS IN THE HILL

• Two major factors could alter Iran’s protest movement 
• Russia’s aggression won’t end until Russians reject Putinism 

That’s it for today! Check out The Hill’s Defense and National Security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!