Defense & National Security — Fears grow over possible false flag operation

by Ellen Mitchell - 10/24/22 6:16 PM ET

As Russia claims that Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb on its own soil, U.S. officials are stressing that the allegations are nothing more than a false flag, with an eye on what Moscow might do next.

We’ll share the latest detail of that, plus how progressives are urging President Biden to push harder for Ukraine peace talks and questions over when a cyberattack would trigger a NATO response.

This is Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. A friend forward this newsletter to you? Subscribe here.

US, Russian generals speak amid false flag fears

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley on Monday spoke with his Russian counterpart in a rare call amid fears that Moscow is looking to escalate its war in Ukraine.

Milley and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, discussed “several security-related issues of concern” and agreed to keep lines of communication open, the Pentagon said in a statement.

Earlier calls: The call, the first between the two since May, comes on the heels of a call between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. That call was the second in three days between the two, after they spoke on Friday. Their call Friday was the first time Austin and his Russian counterpart had spoken since May.

Moscow didn’t provide details of that call, though it noted that Shoigu, in a call with French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, “discussed the situation in Ukraine, which is rapidly deteriorating” and “trending towards further uncontrolled escalation.”

Growing fears: The flurry of conversations comes as Russia claims that Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb on its own soil. Western officials fear the accusation could be an excuse for the Kremlin to set off an attack in Ukraine and use it as a so-called false flag operation to further its war in the country.

A rejection: The top diplomats in the United States, France and the United Kingdom earlier rejected “Russia’s transparently false allegations.”

“We have seen in the past that the Russians have, on occasion, blamed others for things that they were planning to do,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday.

Read the rest here

Also from The Hill:

Russia warns Ukraine could use ‘dirty bomb’; US slams ‘transparently false allegations’
Ukraine: Russia only creating ‘illusion’ of Kherson retreat
Ukrainian commander: The world ‘should be worried’ about Putin nuclear threat

Progressives urge Biden to push for Ukraine talks

Thirty progressive House lawmakers wrote a letter to President Biden on Monday urging him to consider directly engaging with Russia and to become more assertive in negotiating a cease-fire in Ukraine.

Led by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the Democrats asked Biden to advocate harder for peace, noting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats of nuclear warfare and the billions of taxpayer dollars spent on the conflict.

“Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” the lawmakers wrote.

Who signed on?: The signatories included progressives in the House Democratic Caucus such as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Mark Pocan (Wis.).

Supportive yet aggressive: All 30 signatories have voted for more than $50 billion in various forms of assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion and in the letter expressed no regrets for doing so, tying the aid to Ukrainian military successes.

But the letter, which is supported by a coalition of progressive and anti-war advocacy groups, urged a more aggressive U.S. role in ending the conflict after Russia moved to annex four Ukrainian regions and began to take aim at the country’s energy infrastructure.

The White House response: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday that she had not seen the letter, but she reiterated that Biden has vowed a principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” meaning he will not pressure the Ukrainian government to make any concessions to Russia in a potential settlement.

Growing pressure: While the Democrats noted Ukraine’s recent military successes, the letter illustrated growing pressure from lawmakers in both parties to see results after approving tens of billions of dollars in funding to boost Ukraine amid its defensive efforts.

The letter did not, however, garner the support of the entire progressive caucus.

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When would a cyberattack trigger a NATO response?

Cyberattacks are increasingly a key part of modern warfare, but NATO’s treaty that says an attack on one nation represents an attack on all has not covered these aggressive actions.

Several NATO members have been hit with recent cyberattacks, but there has been no signal from NATO on when such attacks might ever trigger Article 5, which states that an act of war against a NATO member will prompt a response from the full alliance.

“Article 5 was written in the days when things were much clearer,” said James Lewis, a senior vice president and director with the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“We don’t have that clarity with cyberattacks,” he added.

Experts have been wondering why government officials have yet to clearly define what constitutes a major cyberattack and what the thresholds are for responding against one.

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ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro and other defense officials will speak at the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association “Naval IT Day 2022” forum, at 8 a.m.
The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies will hold its first annual Spacepower Security Forum with Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations, Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of Space Operations Command; and others at 8:30 a.m.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies will hold a virtual discussion on “Unpacking the 20th Party Congress,” at 8:30 a.m.
The Atlantic Council will hold a virtual talk on “European perspectives on Russian-Chinese strategic convergence,” at 9 a.m.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will speak at a Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “The course of the Russia-Ukraine war,” at 9 a.m.
The National Committee on North Korea will host a discussion on “Korean Peninsula Nuclear Update,” at 12 p.m.
The Institute for Defense and Government Advancement will host a conference on “Beyond Disruption: The Future of Logistics,” at 1:30 p.m.
The Wilson Center will host a virtual talk on “Unpacking the 2022 U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region,” at 2 p.m.