House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) sent a warning shot that will be heard loudly in Kyiv, saying in a new interview that a GOP majority would not give a “blank check” to support Ukraine’s war against Russia. 

We’ll also explore how Russia’s use of Iranian drones is upping the geopolitical stakes for the U.S., as well as Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest warning about China’s threat to Taiwan.

This is Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Colin Meyn. A friend forward this newsletter to you?

McCarthy: No GOP ‘blank check’ to Ukraine

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said House Republicans will not write “a blank check” to Ukraine if they take control of the lower chamber next year.

The comments to Punchbowl News marked one of the clearest signs that aid to the war-torn country fighting off a Russian invasion will face a much tougher road in a GOP-led House.

“It’s not a free blank check. And then there’s the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically. Not doing the border and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check,” McCarthy said.

Many Republicans in the House support military aid for Ukraine but are skeptical about nonmilitary humanitarian aid.

Republicans on the Hill have been frustrated at the Biden administration for not engaging enough with the GOP to justify their requests for the nonmilitary humanitarian aid requests. 

McCarthy comments are also noteworthy as support for Ukraine has been a rare area of bipartisan agreement- so far.

• A minority of House Republicans taking a noninterventionist “America First” stance have opposed aid to Ukraine, setting up a bumpier road for future aid if Republicans win the House in the midterm elections as most analysts forecast.
  
• McCarthy’s “blank check” comments echo some of those concerns coming from the right flank. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) tweeted last month that President Biden “needs to understand that we are the USA not the US-ATM.”

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it,” said McCarthy, who hopes to become Speaker if Republicans win the majority in the midterms.

Read the full story from Emily Brooks. 

Iranian drones in Ukraine raise steaks for US

Russia’s escalation of its attacks on Ukraine using Iranian kamikaze drones and targeting critical infrastructure ahead of winter is raising the stakes for the U.S. and its allies to quickly send air defense systems to the country.

The use of Iranian drones is also putting pressure on the U.S. and Europe to punish Tehran, even as they hold out hope to revive the comatose nuclear deal.

“It is clear that in the emerging cold war between the U.S., on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other, the Iranians have clearly chosen their camp,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director with the International Crisis Group.

Upping pressure for air defenses: Russia’s escalating attacks on cities across Ukraine with the Iranian drones have killed more than a dozen civilians since last week, including a six-months-pregnant woman and her husband.

“The world can and must stop this terror,” Zelensky said in his evening address Monday. “In order to guarantee the protection of our skies, we need significantly more modern air defense systems. And this is not only Ukrainian interest. The fewer terrorist opportunities Russia has, the sooner this war will end.” 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that 30 percent of Ukraine’s power stations had been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country, with officials telling residents to conserve their electricity as much as possible and stock up on water.

German air defense systems arrived in the country last week, and Spain has committed to sending its own “Hawk” air defense systems. Counter-drone equipment from NATO and more U.S. air defense support is said to be on the way.

Sanctions and statements: The U.S. and allies have issued statements of condemnation against the use of Iranian drones and are reportedly readying targeted sanctions against military sales from Iran.

Read the full story from Laura Kelly. 

Blinken warns China’s Taiwan threat is accelerating

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said China’s plans to annex the self-governed island of Taiwan that Beijing claims as its own are moving forward on a “much faster timeline” than previously expected.

• “There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years. And instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, [there was] a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” Blinken said in a conversation with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Defense Secretary James Mattis at Stanford University in California.
  
• “And if peaceful means didn’t work, then [Beijing] would employ coercive means – and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means – to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions,” Blinken added. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday opened the Chinese Communist Party’s national congress on Sunday with a speech that affirmed his opposition to Taiwan’s independence.

Blinken called China’s push toward reunification under Xi a concern for both the U.S. and the international community.  

The balance between the two parties has been “a central component of managing the [U.S.] relationship with China for so long” and has been crucial to facilitating the significant commercial traffic that traverses the straits and impacts the global economy.

• “If that were to be disrupted as a result of a crisis, countries around the world would suffer,” Blinken said.
  
• “I hope that Beijing will come back to a place where it actually sees the merits in making sure that differences are peacefully resolved, that it doesn’t try to force things through coercion, and even worse, through force.” 
  

ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

• The Atlantic Council hosts the event “How will the US Navy navigate an uncertain security environment? A conversation with Adm. Mike Gilday” at 10 a.m.
• Axios will host an event “Cybersecurity Landscape Ahead of the Midterms” at 12:30 p.m. with guests including former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas).
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a fireside chat with Dr. Raj Panjabi on the National Biodefense Strategy and Implementation Plan.

WHAT WE ARE READING

• Four non-nuclear ways Putin could escalate the Ukraine war
• Iran promises to send more drones, missiles to Russia, officials say
• Russia committed ‘vast majority’ of alleged war crimes in Ukraine: UN report
• Most Ukrainians support fighting until war is won: survey
• Zelensky: One-third of Ukraine’s power stations destroyed in past week
• Politico: U.S. industry cranks up HIMARS production as Ukraine war intensifies
• WaPo: Retired U.S. generals, admirals take top jobs with Saudi crown prince

That’s it for today. Check out The Hill’s Defense and National Security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!