Defense & National Security — Images out of Kyiv suburb spark global outrage

It’s Monday, welcome to Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Subscribe here and view the full edition here.

Images of dead civilians lining the streets of the Ukrainian city of Bucha have drawn international outcry, calls for an investigation and western pledges to take harsher actions against Russia. 

We’ll detail what we know so far and the reaction from the U.S. and NATO allies, plus the Biden administration’s prediction for what comes next in Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the latest sparring over Biden’s proposed defense budget.

For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell. Write me with tips at emitchell@digital-stage.thehill.com.

Let’s get to it.

Biden says Bucha killings are a ‘war crime’

President Biden on Monday said he believes Russia committed war crimes in the Ukrainian city of Bucha and pledged to impose further sanctions on Moscow.   

Biden also called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to face a war crimes trial for the acts of violence Russia has committed in Ukraine. 

“This guy is brutal and what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous and everyone has seen it,” Biden told reporters upon arriving at Fort McNair in Washington, D.C. “I think it is a war crime.”  

“I am seeking more sanctions,” Biden said, declining to specify what those penalties would look like.   

Images of atrocity: The brief remarks represented the president’s first comments on the destruction in Bucha, a town northwest of Ukraine’s capital. Images emerged this weekend showing people lying dead in the streets and in mass graves, triggering widespread condemnation of Russia’s actions. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of genocide.   

More evidence needed: Biden reiterated his characterization of Putin as a “war criminal” on Monday but said more evidence needed to be collected so a war crimes case can be tried.

The International Criminal Court has launched an investigated into whether Russia committed war crimes in Ukraine.   

Additional penalties: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said earlier Monday that the U.S. would seek Russia’s suspension from the U.N. Human Rights Council following the violence in Bucha. 

“Russia’s participation on the Human Rights Council is a farce,” Thomas-Greenfield told reporters in Bucharest. “It hurts the credibility of the Council and the UN writ large. And it is simply wrong.”  

Any additional U.S. penalties on Russia would likely be coordinated with European allies. It was not immediately clear when Biden would announce new sanctions on Russia.   

The Pentagon’s response: A senior U.S. defense official said the Pentagon could not independently confirm reports of killings in Bucha but said officials have “no reason whatsoever to refute the Ukrainian claims about these atrocities.”  

The official also called the images “deeply, deeply troubling,” as well as “sickening” and “disgusting.” 

Russia denied killing civilians in Bucha and has more broadly rejected allegations of war crimes. 

Read the full story here.

MORE PRESSURE TO HOLD PUTIN ACCOUNTABLE 

The images coming out of Bucha illustrate the atrocities Ukrainian officials say Russian troops are committing in the country, increasing pressure on the United States and its allies to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin accountable. 

“These are war crimes and will be recognized by the world as genocide,” Zelensky said Monday while surveying the carnage in the city of Bucha, outside Kyiv.   

“We know of thousands of people killed and tortured, with severed limbs, raped women and murdered children,” he said. 

What can be done?: “I want to emphasize that those general messages are positive, like we’ve had from the president in the last few hours, that’s important,” said Stephen Rapp, who served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice during the Obama administration and is an advisor to groups documenting war crimes in Ukraine. 

“At the moment the U.S. is working closely with the Ukrainian Prosecutor General. It’s important that that office be a center of coordination.” 

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General, to which the U.S. and other governments provide technical and financial support, is an essential front in the legal route to prosecute war crimes. 

The office should have the capacity to carry out a trial in Kyiv against alleged Russian perpetrators it captures in combat, or to build a case that leads up the Russian chain-of-command, Rapp said.   

However, a main venue to hold Putin accountable is likely the International Criminal Court in the Hague. 

Read more here.

White House warns of new potential Russian blitz

The White House says it believes Russia is repositioning its troops in Ukraine with the intent of focusing its attacks on the eastern parts of the country after its full-scale invasion has stalled after more than one month. 

National security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the Biden administration’s expectations for how Russia will proceed in the coming days and weeks, outlining a scenario where Russia focuses its attacks on the Donbas region in order to win military victories the Kremlin can use to create a narrative of success. 

“At this juncture we believe that Russia is revising its war aims,” Sullivan said at a press briefing. “Russia is repositioning its forces to concentrate its offensive operations in eastern and parts of southern Ukraine rather than target most of the territory.” 

The likely plan: administration officials believe Russia will focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, two areas of the Donbas region where pro-Russian separatists have operated for years. 

“Russia could then use any tactical successes it achieves to propagate a narrative of progress and mask or discount or downplay prior military failures,” Sullivan said. 

At the same time, Sullivan said Moscow will likely continue to launch air and missile strikes across the rest of Ukraine, including in the capital city of Kyiv and other populous areas like Odesa, Kharkiv and Lviv. 

A shift: Russia last week started to move its troops away from the areas around Kyiv. But President Biden and other White House officials have cautioned against believing Moscow is withdrawing troops or winding down its military operation. 

Read the full story here.

Lawmakers spar over Biden’s defense budget 

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are sparring over the merits of President Biden’s $813.3 billion defense budget, one of the largest investments in the Pentagon and security ever proposed. 

Republicans are largely united in their calls to invest even more in defense as the threat from China grows, the U.S. works to back Ukraine and other allies against Russia and inflation climbs. 

Democrats, on the other hand, are split. Liberals are decrying a Democratic president seeking to pump more money into the Pentagon, which has already seen its budget swell over the years. But centrist Democrats, eyeing a difficult midterm election when their party is on its back foot, want to be seen as backing U.S. defense, leading experts to predict Biden’s proposal is merely a floor for what the Pentagon could get. 

Read the full story here.

ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will speak to media ahead of Wednesday’s in-person meeting of NATO foreign ministers at the alliance headquarters in Brussels at 8 a.m.
• German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber will speak at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Germany and the U.S.: What’s Next for the Transatlantic Alliance?” at 9 a.m. 
• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will testify before the House Armed Services Committee on the “Fiscal Year 2023 Defense Budget Request,” at 9:30 a.m. 
• The Wilson Center will hold a virtual discussion on “The Future of Syria: ISIS, the Iranians, and the Displaced Millions” with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for the Middle East Dana Stroul at 10 a.m. 
• New America will host a virtual discussion on a new report, “America’s Endless Counterterrorism War in Yemen: A Strategic Assessment,” at 12 p.m.   
• The U.S. Institute of Peace will hold a virtual discussion on “What Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Means for the Indo-Pacific” with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) and Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) at 2 p.m. 
• A House Armed Services subcommittee will hold a hearing on “Operations in Cyberspace and Building Cyber Capabilities Across the Department of Defense” with Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, head of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency, at 3 p.m. 

WHAT WE’RE READING

• MSNBC’s Ali Velshi calls for NATO’s ‘direct military involvement’ against Russia 
• Mayor of Bucha on slain civilians: We ‘get the impression’ Russian troops had ‘green light from Putin’ 
• Zelensky visits Bucha, says Russian atrocities will make talks ‘very difficult’ 
• Macron, EU official join calls for further sanctions over ‘clear’ indications of war crimes in Bucha 
• State Department formally launches new cyber bureau 
• The Hill: Opinion: Yes, the US and its allies can stop Putin 
• The Hill: Opinion: An ‘Austrian-Swiss’ solution for Ukraine? 

That’s it for today. Check out The Hill’s defense and national security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!