A major Russian push in the northeastern Kharkiv region has created one of the most significant challenges since the beginning of the war for Ukrainian troops, who are ammunition-starved and stretched thin as they fight across the 600-mile frontline.
Moscow’s surprise invasion of Kharkiv from the Russian province of Belgorod last Friday is pressing Ukrainian forces already struggling to fend off Russia’s attacks in eastern Ukraine, primarily in the Donetsk region that the Kremlin has long sought as a prize.
While Russia does not appear to have the forces to take significant ground in Kharkiv, its troops have advanced with relative ease and forced Ukraine to deploy reserve units, which could endanger Ukrainian positions elsewhere on the front.
Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor who studies war at the University of California-San Diego, said Russia is trying to seize territory, taking advantage of the brief window before American weapons fully arrive from last month’s $61 billion national security supplemental.
“We’re seeing Ukraine at its weakest,” he said. “The Russians are using [this window] and pushing like crazy because they know by mid- to late summer, the situation is going to stabilize. … The Ukrainians are in trouble right now and the next couple of months will be very critical.”
Russian forces have advanced at least 39 square miles in Kharkiv, according to open-source channels, and they are moving closer to Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.
Russia moved forward with the help of armored vehicles, artillery fire and glide bombs, or precision guided munitions that have been hard for Ukraine to defend against, especially while running low on air defenses.
Several villages have fallen to Russia, and forces are close to capturing the town of Vovchansk, which began evacuating thousands of civilians ahead of the Russian advance.
Russian military bloggers claim that Russia has moved into the northern part of Vovchansk, where heavy fighting remains. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said forces have also taken towns in the vicinity of Vovchansk, including Bugrovatka, or are fighting around the villages.
Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said in a Telegram post this week that the “situation at the front remains tense.”
“The situation in Kharkiv Oblast has significantly worsened,” he wrote.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Tuesday night video address that the situation remained difficult but was being reinforced and stabilized.
“Many warriors — especially Kharkiv residents — have risen to defend the Kharkiv region,” Zelensky said.
Biden administration officials said this week that the Russian offensive was expected, but it still seems to have caught Ukraine flat-footed. The fast pace of the Russian advance has prompted an outcry in Ukraine over the lack of defenses in the region, which Ukraine retook in a surprise 2022 counteroffensive.
Kyiv replaced a commander to oversee the defense of Kharkiv. And one Ukrainian reconnaissance commander told BBC that there was “no first line of defense” and that the Russians “just walked in” to Kharkiv.
The Kharkiv offensive has also exposed some frustration with U.S. policy. Ukrainian officials have pressed for more air defenses to cover embattled regions like Kharkiv.
They also want Washington to allow their troops to employ U.S. weapons to strike inside of Russia, including the Belgorod region near Kharkiv — but that remains a hard no for the Biden administration.
Ukrainian lawmaker David Arahamiya led a delegation to Washington this week to push the Biden administration to reverse the policy banning the use of U.S. weapons inside of Russia.
“It really damages our positions on the front line,” he said of the policy at a media roundtable event on Tuesday. “Nobody understands how you can fight on one hand and not fight on the other. This is not working.”
Michael Bohnert, an engineer at Rand Corporation focusing on defense technology, said there are also concerns about manpower in Ukraine’s ranks. But he said the Russian advance is owed to Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and resources that were depleted by a monthslong delay of new U.S. military aid.
“They’re just not getting the ammo they need,” he said. “Ukraine is still at the stage in the war right now where they are ammunition starved and gear starved. They’re not people starved – yet. “
Still, manpower remains a concern and Ukraine has refrained from announcing a mobilization of some 500,000 troops, since the proposal is unpopular.
Ukrainian parliament member Oleksandra Ustinov said morale is low in Ukraine in part because of the questions about U.S. support.
“Because all the Russians are saying, ‘Oh they’re just gonna send you to die because you have no ammunition. They’re not giving you the chance.’ Which is true,” she said at the D.C. roundtable. “It is very difficult for us to say that there is support.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet with Zelensky and other top officials as the Russian assault intensifies.
During a speech in Kyiv, Blinken said Russia was sending “wave after wave” of attacks on Ukraine in Kharkiv and the eastern front, but that U.S. aid can help turn the tide.
“The coming weeks and months will demand a great deal of Ukrainians, who have already sacrificed so much,” he said. “But I have come to Ukraine with a message: You are not alone. The United States has been by your side from day one. We’re with you today. And we will stay by your side.”
Russia is pressing Ukraine across several fronts, including the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukraine made small gains in a 2023 counteroffensive. There is also an effort to take the remaining areas of the eastern Luhansk region out of Moscow’s control. region out of Moscow’s control, with Russia pressing there toward the city of Kupyansk in Kharkiv, just east of Vovchansk.
Russian troops are also making incremental advances in the eastern Donetsk region after taking the city of Avdiivka in February, moving slowly toward the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Those cities, if taken, could hand Moscow control of the Donetsk.
Russia is pressing toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the direction of Avdiivka and from Chasiv Yar, a key city that will give Russian forces a high ground for artillery fire if it falls. Chasiv Yar has become one of the largest ongoing battlegrounds in the war.
By opening another front in Kharkiv this month while those battles rage, Russia is threatening Ukraine’s ability to defend multiple fronts at the same time.
The Biden administration has acknowledged the pace of the delivery of weapons.
“Part of it is about a six-month delay in being able to get assistance to Ukraine,” said White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday. “That has put Ukraine in a hole, and we’ve made no bones about that from this podium.”
Referring to a $1 billion package announced in late April and a $400 million tranche last week, Sullivan said some weapons have arrived and more are coming this week. He said there is a “steady flow” of weapons heading to Ukraine and another package will be announced soon.
“The delay put Ukraine in a hole, and we’re trying to help them dig out of that hole as rapidly as possible,” Sullivan added.
Analysts say Russia, at the pace of its offensive, could keep the pressure on for several more months. While Ukraine could reverse some Russian gains later, the more territory Ukraine loses is a concern because Moscow could dig in and entrench themselves, a tactic that worked to repel the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Still, Russia only amassed some 30,000 troops for the Kharkiv offensive, which military analysts say is not enough to take any major cities.
The effort may point to a Kremlin strategy to create a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine, a point Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised repeatedly to protect Russia’s border regions from Ukrainian drone attacks and shelling.
Still, given the regional proximity to Kyiv, any significant Russian advances in Kharkiv could jeopardize Ukraine’s capital for the first time since a full-force Russia invasion in February 2022.
While taking Kharkiv city would be difficult, Russia could surround it and put it under immense pressure, endangering a critical area and potentially putting Ukrainian supply lines in range of artillery, said David Silbey, associate professor and military historian at Cornell University.
It could get “very hard to supply farther east, which gives the Russians more of a chance to break through at that point,” Silbey said, saying the Kharkiv offensive “catches the Ukrainians in something of a vice [as they are] short on manpower and already threatened in substantial directions.”