Israel’s airstrike on an Iranian Embassy compound in Syria’s capital has spurred fears of a renewed aim at U.S. interests in the region, despite American officials claiming no advanced knowledge of the attack.
Former U.S. officials and experts say the strike, which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said killed two senior members and five officers Monday in Damascus, could mean renewed attacks on American troops and bases in Iraq and Syria by Tehran-backed proxies.
Such attacks, which spiked after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, died down in early February in the wake of a massive U.S. retaliatory assault against the militia groups.
Washington ordered those strikes after an attack by Iranian aligned militants killed three U.S. service members at a small base in Jordan in January.
But though the U.S. has denied any involvement in the Damascus strike — which happened during the day on a diplomatic building near Iran’s Embassy — being Israel’s biggest ally could put Washington in the crosshairs of any retaliation from Iran.
Experts agreed, however, that any Iranian response would likely be carefully calibrated to avoid a costly all-out war involving the U.S. or its key regional ally.
By not responding, “Iran looks weak, both its own forces and to its allies,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it seems to me that Iran is also very cautious about getting into an escalatory spiral either with the United States or with Israel.”
He predicted a strike on an empty facility or an increase in missiles lobbed toward Israel, “something they can categorize as a response, but that they will calculate is unlikely to ratchet up tensions.”
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The Pentagon indicated that officials were concerned Israel’s strike against Iran may increase the risk to U.S. troops in the region, as they’ve “made it very clear and [via] private channels to Iran that we were not responsible for the strike that happened in Damascus,” deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Tuesday, a day after the strike.
“I will reiterate: The U.S. had no involvement in that strike. And we had no knowledge about it ahead of time,” she added.
Israel has not taken responsibility for the airstrike — the most significant such attack on Iranian interests since the start of Israel-Hamas war — but Singh said the U.S. assessed that Israel was responsible.
And the top U.S. Air Force commander for the Middle East, U.S. Air Forces Central head Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, warned Wednesday that American troops were in danger in the region.
Grynkewich told reporters that the Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian proxy that has attacked commercial ships and Navy vessels in the Red Sea, are more difficult for Tehran to control and “not quite as responsive” to direction compared to other militias in Iraq and Syria.
That same day, the USS Gravely and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces destroyed an inbound antiship ballistic missile and two drones launched by the Houthis in Yemen toward Gravely in the Red Sea. No injuries or damage was reported, according to a CENTCOM press release.
Israel also appeared to be preparing for blowback from the strike Thursday, when its military announced it was suspending leave for reservists.
Further ratcheting up concerns of a looming Iranian response, Tehran’s leaders have threatened retaliation.
“We will make them regret this crime and other similar ones with the help of God,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a statement Tuesday. Israel will be “punished by the hands of our brave men.”
Following that threat, U.S. troops in southeastern Syria destroyed an attack drone, though it was not clear whether the American forces were the drone’s intended target, The New York Times reported.
William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, said he expected Iran would retaliate in some way, but downplayed concerns of a major response.
He said Iran “will probably work to achieve what they see as a symmetrical response to this, while at the same time, trying not to provoke the kind of war that would risk the existence of their proxy in Lebanon,” referring to Hezbollah, a militant group and political party backed by Tehran.
“Iran does not want a regional war,” Wechsler said. “I think that they are happy with the current level of violence in this. It would surprise me if they would want to change that strategically by going against American forces in a significant way.”