Is Hamas buying time with hostage releases?

The hostage deal reached late Wednesday in the Israel-Hamas war is set to halt fighting in the conflict for at least four days, but its open-ended nature raises concerns about whether the pause may assist Hamas strategically, as the U.S. and Israel both hope to wipe out the terrorist organization.

The Israel-Hamas war began early last month when Hamas militants killed 1,200 Israelis in a brutal surprise attack on border settlements and took about another 250 people hostage.

The deal reached this week is set to free 50 Israeli hostages in exchange for a temporary cessation of hostilities and the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners to the West Bank.

But critics of the agreement note that any pause in fighting may only play into Hamas’ hands and allow the group to extend its fight against Israel.

That criticism marks a division within Israel and among its allies, University of New Haven national security senior lecturer Ken Gray told The Hill.

“For the IDF, this pause causes problems because it gets time for Hamas to realign their forces, to try to shore up some areas that they may not have had people in at that time,” Gray said. “It gives [Hamas] a chance to retrench themselves.”

“In many ways, there is a conflict as to what the primary mission is,” he continued. “The IDF’s primary mission is to be able to remove Hamas as a threat, while others in Israel want to try to resolve this peacefully and as quickly as possible in order to get the hostages back.”

Former U.N. ambassador John Bolton has been one of the loudest critics of the agreement, calling it “bad for Israel,” despite the concerns for hostages. He previously served as national security adviser to former President Trump.

“Hamas is playing a game of psychological warfare against the people of Israel, and the people of the United States as well,” he said in a CNN interview Thursday.

“They’re trying to distract Israel from its strategic mission of eliminating Hamas, and trying to focus on the question of the hostages [and] the question of the condition of civilians in Gaza,” he continued.

A focus in the deal is a clause that allows Hamas to extend the cease-fire by a day for every additional 10 hostages released. That could allow Hamas to extend the pause for over two weeks until they return every hostage.

Gray said he expects Hamas to drag out the cease-fire deal. The group already delayed the second wave of hostage releases on Saturday, citing a shortfall in humanitarian aid, though the problem was quickly resolved.

“Hamas is trying to buy time in hopes that it becomes a regional conflict. And the way that they do that is to start not fulfilling the hostage exchanges,” he said. “Early on, have a hostage exchange and then start having problems and not delivering the hostages, and then it turns into the same situation as [Gilad Shalit].”

IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was taken hostage by Hamas in 2006, and released in 2011 after five years of tense negotiations in exchange for about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. 

However, Gray said attempts to create larger regional conflict — a major concern of the Biden administration — are unlikely to be successful. The risk of the conflict growing to include Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Iran is smaller now than at the outbreak of the war, he said.

“If it were possible, it would have already happened,” he said. “Hamas overplayed their hand.”

While Hezbollah has continued limited skirmishes with Israeli troops on the Israel-Lebanon border, there has been no large-scale escalation in fighting.

Middle Eastern governments at large appear to be refusing to back Hamas, and the Biden administration has stressed the importance of an independent Palestinian government in post-war Gaza, a key issue among Arab leaders. 

“As we look to the future, we have to end the cycle of violence in the Middle East,” Biden said Friday. “We need to renew our resolve to pursue this two-state solution, where Israelis and Palestinians can one day live side-by-side in a two-state solution with equal measures of freedom and dignity.”

Backers of the hostage deal also highlight that it allows significant amounts of humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, which has run low on food, medical supplies and fuel reserves for weeks.

Assisting civilians in Gaza has been a focus of U.S. pressure on the Israeli government and increasing domestic pressure within Israel, as the civilian death toll climbs. 

Over 12,000 Palestinians, including at least 4,600 children, have died in Israeli air strikes and the ground invasion of Gaza, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

Keeping that figure as low as possible and assisting civilians in Gaza also keeps Middle Eastern governments, and skeptics in Israel and the U.S., on board with the war effort, Gray said.

“At some point, the number of Palestinian casualties will get so great that Israel will have no choice but be forced to stop,” Gray said. “The question is, how many is too much? Is 11,000 too much? Is 12,000 too much? 15,000?”

Despite that the pause could bring military advantage to Hamas, proponents of the deal argue that releasing the first 50 Israeli hostages can set the stage for further hostage releases in addition to advancing humanitarian interests.

Biden said Friday that it is his “goal” for the cease-fire agreement to be extended beyond four days, and for all hostages to be returned.

“The moment Hamas kidnapped these people, I along with my team, have worked around the clock to secure their release,” he said. “All of these hostages have been through a terrible ordeal, and this is the beginning of a long journey of healing for them.”