Five things to watch for at a crucial NATO summit

NATO leaders will gather July 11-12 in Lithuania to discuss the war in Ukraine and the embattled country’s bid to join the alliance, as well as defense spending levels and Sweden’s accession to the western security organization.

President Biden will attend the summit along with leaders and heads of states from nations across NATO’s 31 members. The summit is the fourth such event since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a break from once-a-year gatherings.

The high-stakes event will be closely guarded, with security measures in Lithuania’s capital city of Vilnius to include three German Patriot air defense units protecting the venue and fighter jets patrolling the country’s airspace.

Here are five of the biggest things to watch for at the summit.

Sweden vs. Turkey, Hungary

Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the gathering is whether NATO leaders can reach a deal with Turkey and Hungary to approve the accession of Sweden to the alliance.

Sweden, along with Finland, abandoned its long-held policy of military nonalignment and applied for membership following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

The process has been held up mainly by Turkey, which argues Sweden’s government has been too lenient with the Kurdish Workers Party, which is deemed a terrorist group by the U.S., Turkey and the European Union.

Every NATO member must agree on a new country joining the alliance.

Hungary’s Foreign Minister said this week that Budapest would not stand in the way of ratifying Sweden once Turkey signals approval for the country’s inclusion.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who has long expressed his conviction in Stockholm’s eventual ascension, said Friday he was “confident” they could make progress in getting Sweden into the alliance, though he noted that “gaps” remained.

Stoltenberg said there was a planned meeting between Turkish President Recep Erdoğan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Monday.

“My message is, Sweden has delivered,” the NATO leader said. “At the same time, I’m also very clear Turkey has serious security concerns and that’s the reason we’re sitting down.”

Earlier this week, Biden met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at the White House, where the president affirmed his commitment to getting Sweden into the alliance.

Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership

A dominant topic of the summit is whether the alliance will offer Ukraine a fast track to get into NATO amid repeated calls by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his country to gain an invitation.

The situation is a complicated one, as the war against Russia is raging and the alliance has long held a policy known as Article 5 that stipulates an attack on a member is an attack on them all. 

Some members of NATO support Kyiv’s bid, including the Bucharest Nine — nine of NATO’s most eastern European nations — which want to offer a roadmap for the alliance’s future relationship with the embattled country.

The group said they want to “enhance our political and practical support to Ukraine” with a multi-year defense package and increased interoperability with the alliance. 

“We expect that in Vilnius, we will upgrade our political relations with Ukraine to a new level, and launch a new political track that will lead to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, once conditions allow,” a statement read.

Some countries have also backed a British proposal to allow Kyiv to bypass the alliance’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) program, which dictates military, political and economic goals countries have to meet and Eastern European nations have to pass before receiving entry to NATO.

But others, including the United States and Germany, are concerned that any quick moves to accept Ukraine will cause further tensions with Russia. 

Stoltenberg has made clear that Ukraine will not gain entry into the organization while its war with Russia continues, with no formal invitation to come at the Vilnius summit. Stoltenberg did, however, vow that allies would push to “move Ukraine closer to NATO” at the summit.

Ukraine must also meet certain additional criteria, including anti-corruption standards. Biden said last month he would not “make it easier” for Ukraine to join NATO.

The Wagner rebellion

The short-lived rebellion of Russian private military organization Wagner Group last month may stiffen the spine of NATO and up its commitment to both its own and Ukraine’s defense needs.

Many are watching closely as to what allies say about the rebellion, which saw thousands of mercenary troops under Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin march on Moscow.

Stoltenberg last month said the revolt showed the “weakness” and “fragility” of Russia.

If allies continue to believe that statement, then the rebellion may indicate robust, long-term support for Ukraine from NATO. And it may complicate the arguments for any dissenters who want to pull out from the war effort because of a long conflict.

Along those lines, leaders are expected to review the first defense plans NATO has drafted since the Cold War.

The so-called regional plans would give countries a new playbook on how to upgrade their militaries and logistics, detail how NATO would respond to an attack from the Kremlin, and raise targets for ammunition stockpiles — a particularly important topic given Ukraine’s fast-paced use of Western-provided shells that has depleted supplies.

Turkey has been blocking any approval of the strategy, an issue expected to be hashed out at the summit.

Leaders will also lay out how NATO would ready more than 300,000 troops, an increase from 40,000 agreed to at last year’s Madrid summit, to counter Moscow should the need arise.

F-16 training and delivery to Ukraine

In May, Biden announced a training program for Ukrainian pilots to learn how to operate F-16 aircraft, which Kyiv has long asked for.

A looming question is whether NATO can set a timeline for when training will be completed and the fourth-generation aircraft can be delivered to the battlefield.

The Pentagon has only said that Ukrainian pilots will train at sites in Europe on the F-16s and that the fighter jets are a long-term commitment for the country, making it unclear when they will get their hands on the prized warplanes.

The training is expected to take months, but all indications are that Ukraine needs them sooner than later.

Russia has dominated the airspace during the war with a much larger fleet, and more jets could boost Ukraine in the counteroffensive launched last month.

Moscow deployed attack helicopters during the beginning stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensive to deadly effect.

Other weapons systems for Ukraine are likely to come up at the summit, including long-range artillery and cluster munitions. Cluster munitions were approved by the Biden administration this week.

Defense spending commitments

Back in 2014, NATO members pledged to increase their minimum defense spending to 2 percent of their individual national GDP — the economic output of a nation — a goal that has since only been met by seven countries. 

The commitment has been seen as all the more critical since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Stoltenberg vowing to make NATO’s current 2-percent target a minimum requirement rather than a goal to aim for.

That formal commitment to establish a minimum military spending target for all NATO members is expected to be announced at the summit, as Stoltenberg promised when he visited Washington last month.

Biden has also pushed for a formal agreement to be reached at the gathering.

The only alliance members to have met the target as of the end of 2022 are the United States, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, the United Kingdom, Estonia and Greece.

NATO has tried for years to get the 2 percent of GDP target to stick, and it’s unclear if the commitment can be reached despite the pledges.

The war in Ukraine has boosted the spending commitment of several European allies, who are concerned the world is becoming increasingly unstable and that NATO members close to the fighting are vulnerable to any battles that may spill over.