Questions mount about top Russian general after Wagner rebellion

Questions are mounting regarding the whereabouts and potential involvement of top Russian general Sergei Surovikin in the failed Wagner Group uprising last weekend as Moscow interviews military brass and regular soldiers amid the fallout.

Several Russian military bloggers have reported an ongoing investigation into the military following the rebellion, which comes amid swirling questions around how much support Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had within the military when he marched toward Moscow with thousands of troops.

Other questions include whether any Russian commanders had advanced knowledge of the rebellion.

The New York Times on Tuesday reported that Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon” for his brutal bombing campaigns in Syria, knew of the rebellion ahead of time.

Both Surovikin and Prigozhin have reportedly maintained a close relationship with each other after campaigns in Syria.

Surovikin oversaw Moscow’s war in Ukraine from October to January, when he was replaced by Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff who was a frequent target of Prigozhin’s rage.

The Moscow Times and CBS News have reported Surovikin was detained by Russian authorities, but the claim is not verified. Surovkin has not been since a Saturday video urging Prigozhin to stand down.

The Kremlin has denied reports of Surovikin’s involvement with Prigozhin in the uprising.

Still, a shakeup may be coming in Russia. Widely read Russian military blogger Rybar wrote this week there were “large-scale purges” in the military and a “crash test” for loyalty in the armed forces.

“But these cleansings concern not only the leadership — it also touched ordinary fighters with officers,” Rybar wrote. “The pilots who refused to strike at mixed convoys … are now facing criminal prosecution. … Such cases are an example of bureaucratic delirium and inertia of the system.”

Another account, Colonelcassad, wrote in a Telegram post that at least 500 Russian service members were interviewed, though the post said many of them were considered witnesses.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted many of these Russian bloggers have accurately reported on command structures in the Russian military before.

ISW Russia analyst Karolina Hird told The Hill that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be “trying to realign and balance away” from Prigozhin’s views and influence.

“It’s very much a matter of loyalty and maintaining the kind of inner circle of those who are close to him and who have served him well,” she said. “And very much pushing against the officers who have aligned with Prigozhin and Prigozhin’s very direct and pointed questioning of the Kremlin’s line.”

The Wagner march on Saturday was halted more than 100 miles from Moscow after Prigozhin reached a deal with Putin in which the mercenary commander entered exile in Belarus and terrorism charges against him were dropped.

During the rebellion, Prigozhin easily captured Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia with a major military base, and was seen conversing with military leaders in photos. Prigozhin also marched on Moscow with little resistance, though about seven aircraft were shot down.

The Wagner Group leader said 60 to 70 Russian military members joined him during the march, though the claim is not verified. According to Hird from ISW, a small number of Russian soldiers may have joined the rebellion, but it’s unlikely to be anywhere near the number Prigozhin claimed.

Ahead of the attempted insurrection, Prigozhin railed for months against what he called corruption and ineffectiveness in the war in Ukraine among top Russian leadership in the military.

In his rants, Prigozhin particularly singled out Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Gerasimov has not been seen in public since the rebellion, though Shoigu appeared in a video this week.

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who brokered the deal between Prigozhin and Putin, said the Wagner boss told him he wanted Shoigu and Gerasimov.

That supports reports that Prigozhin may have sought to capture the defense leaders in Ukraine but was forced to hasten his plans on Friday after Russian authorities caught wind of the plot.

Several analysts told The Hill this week that Prigozhin miscalculated how much support he had for the uprising and may have counted on a wider range of defections.

While Wagner fighters were not charged, Putin has raged against the “organizers” of the rebellion and appears to be moving to break up the mercenary company.