How the Pentagon’s point man in the Indo-Pacific is keeping China in check

Jed Royal doesn’t think the China threat is overhyped.  

A career civil servant who has worked in various roles at the Pentagon for the last two decades, Royal, 44, took over as the principal deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs (IPSA) in September. 

The job oversees IPSA’s extensive portfolio — including China, Taiwan and South and East Asia, all the way to Mongolia in the north and Afghanistan and Pakistan in Central Asia — working to synchronize the agency’s activities with the administration’s goals. 

The task is no small feat, as the Biden administration late last year named China as the United States’s largest long-term threat, outweighing even Russia. 

The strategy, released in October, pointed to Beijing as the top “pacing challenge” for the Defense Department, calling for a major effort to build up the U.S. military with an eye on deterring China in the next several decades. 

The document pointedly warns that China is the most “consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades,” saying Beijing seeks to threaten Taiwan, erode American alliances in the region and potentially destabilize the U.S. homeland through surveillance and cyberattack capabilities. 

“We’re tracking [the People’s Republic of China] intention and military activity, military behavior, and our concern about the way that the PRC and the [People’s Liberation Army] operate in the region is increasingly dangerous,” Royal told The Hill in a recent interview. “We don’t think that the way that we have put forward the depiction of the PRC pacing challenge is overblown in any regard.” 

Beijing’s coercive behavior has been in the news frequently since the start of the year, first with its highly scrutinized aerial surveillance program, brought to light after a spy balloon was spotted over the U.S. in late January and early February.  

That was followed by Chinese war drills earlier this month around Taiwan after the independent island’s leader, Tsai Ing-wen, met with Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and several other U.S. lawmakers while in the United States, a visit that angered Beijing.  

The military exercises mirrored those after then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited Taiwan in August, after which China for nearly a week dispatched warships and military aircraft around the island and fired ballistic missiles into nearby waters and air in a show of force not seen before.  

“We’ve been closely monitoring what they’re doing. We do see an alarming uptick in the way they operate in and around the Taiwan Strait, including with incursions that are clearly meant to send a signal that the PRC wants to make sure that Taiwan knows it’s happening,” Royal said.  

He would not comment on whether the Chinese drills this month were on par with those around Pelosi’s visit, but he said in both cases Beijing is trying to use the situation to establish some type of new normal. 

“This is a problem for instability in the region and across the strait,” Royal said. “I would say that we should expect probably more of this kind of thing in the future if things continue on this trend, and it’s very concerning to us.” 

CIA Director William Burns said earlier this year that U.S. intelligence has shown that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered Beijing’s military to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, which it views as sovereign territory.  

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan if China were to attempt an invasion, though it’s not clear if that includes the use of American troops or only the influx of U.S. weapons and equipment, as Washington has done for Ukraine in its war with Russia.  

A major concern floated, however, is whether the U.S. military will have enough of the right weapons in its stockpiles for Taiwan after billions of dollars’ worth have been pledged to Kyiv.  

But Royal — who prior to his current role served as the deputy director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the arm overseeing foreign military sales — brushed aside such worries.  

“Every decision that we have made to draw down from U.S. military stock and provide to Ukraine has been with full knowledge and awareness of what is necessary to be able to deter, and if necessary, fight and win in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said. 

“We’re completely confident that we can execute our operational plans as necessary in the event of conflict,” he added.  

Royal also addressed a $19 billion backlog of U.S. weapons approved for Taiwan, a figure often touted by GOP lawmakers. 

The sales, which include Harpoon over-the-horizon long-range anti-ship missiles and F-16 fighter jets, stem from a 2019 deal delayed due to COVID-19-related supply chain issues and high weapons demands amid the Ukraine-Russia war.   

“I think the word backlog sort of invokes a sense that everything is stagnant and not moving forward, and I can assure you that’s not the case,” Royal said. “The department is moving very quickly to try and ensure that the defense industrial base can produce … as efficient as possible to move those weapons towards Taiwan. And we’re in the process of doing so.” 

He pointed to $54 billion in implemented foreign military sales to Taiwan, including $27 billion in new contracts in 2017, indicating the sheer amount of weapons and equipment promised to the island.

He said the scrutiny helps the U.S. defense industrial base receive the level of attention that it needs, some of which will come through funding in the current fiscal 2023 and in the upcoming fiscal 2024 defense budget. 

“We’re investing a lot to try and ensure that the defense industrial base is responsive in the United States. Some of that will have a bit of a lag in terms of payoff. That’s no surprise,” Royal said.  

In the meantime, the Pentagon has kept a close eye on its balance of an outward projection of strength in the face of a bellicose China. The tightrope walk is crucial to prevent any miscalculation between the two superpowers. 

“On the question of miscalculation, I think that’s an important thing for us to consider,” Royal said. “We will operate responsibly and safely wherever international law allows. We’ve made that sort of a key tenant of the way that we’ve conducted ourselves and fully compliant with what we believe to be the rules-based international order — we don’t see the same behavior on the PRC side.” 

The mismatch lends to concerns that China “could be allowing for the additional opportunity for a miscalculation or something along those lines due to its risky behavior and the way that it operates,” he added.  

Royal stressed the need for communication in such scenarios, with Washington keeping to a long-standing policy and practice of reaching out to China with an open channel for communication.  

The United States has done this in previous naval transits through Chinese contested waters in the South China Sea ahead of war drills and during the course of the high-altitude spy balloon, which was eventually shot down over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina.  

“We believe that open lines of communication are really important in situations just like this to be able to manage responsibly manage the international environment and avoid the chance of miscalculation,” he said. “But unfortunately, we’re not getting the kind of responsiveness from Beijing that we would like.”