Leaks test western unity in fight against Putin

America’s efforts to build and bolster a pro-Ukraine coalition have been bruised by a trove of at least 100 documents that have spilled out across the internet in recent days, revealing startling insights into U.S. spying on allies and frank assessments of the war in Ukraine.

The incident has also shaken general trust in Washington over the safety of sharing intelligence with the U.S. government. 

“We do believe that the U.S. intelligence is the most powerful around the world, and it’s also secured well enough,” one Ukrainian diplomat told The Hill, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects.

“So if you see this intelligence information published in The New York Times … I never expected this level of security to be leaked.”

Among the purported materials released via social media platforms last week were briefing documents that had markings indicating production by the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s intelligence arm in February and early March. Though some of the materials may have been altered, most appear authentic.  

The highly classified material, some labeled “Top Secret,” has given the world a view into how Washington spies on allies and adversaries, setting off fears that important foreign relationships could be compromised. 

“There’s no doubt it impedes things precisely at a time when we want to be getting the strongest possible coalition against Russia and in favor of Ukraine, and similarly, with China,” said Glenn Gerstell, the former general counsel of the National Security Agency and Central Security Service, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“We have all sorts of reasons for wanting like-minded countries to band together with us and follow what we are requesting and suggesting, and this incident certainly complicates that and presents challenges,” he added.

In the wake of the leak, the Biden administration has scrambled to do damage control with allies and partners.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday confirmed that U.S. officials were calling allies and partners “at high levels” over the past several days “to reassure them about our own commitment to safeguarding intelligence and, of course, our commitment to our security partnerships.” 

Standing next to Blinken was Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, who said that he would have to wait until the conclusion of the U.S. investigation into the leaks before offering comment if Manila was concerned about sharing intelligence with the U.S. 

“But just let me say that we are confident of the strength of our relationship and our growing partnership,” he added. 

Still, the leaks have caused embarrassing, and even dangerous, revelations over what the U.S. reportedly is tracking among allies. 

This includes reports that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi was directing a secret program to ship tens of thousands of rockets to Russia, in what would mark a remarkable act of sabotage by a U.S.-friendly country and major recipient of American military aid. 

The Ukrainian diplomat told the Hill that Kyiv does not believe that the Egyptians have carried out a plan to transfer weapons to Russia, echoing remarks from American officials. The diplomat noted Cairo is looking to make itself a lucrative destination for Ukrainian grain exports that can be fettered out to the global south. 

“Of course those actions will contradict the desire to establish this hub and work on the other commercial projects with Ukraine,” the diplomat said. 

Another country impacted by the leaks is Serbia, one of the only European countries to refuse to sanction Russia for its attack on Ukraine. The leaked documents seem to show that although Belgrade has refused to provide training to Ukrainian troops, it has agreed to help arm the country or has already done so. Serbia, a historical ally of Russia, has denied the information. 

Gerstell said the flood of previously hidden information, even if tampered with, will likely cause temporary frictions that will occupy a lot of America’s diplomatic bandwidth. 

“It’s time consuming and diverting,” he said, adding that some allies or partners may also react by “not going ahead as robustly and fully as they might otherwise in terms of doing things that we wish them to do.”

He also predicted an inevitable pause in intelligence sharing among allies until the U.S. can confirm this particular leak is stopped and not ongoing. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday that U.S. agencies would “turn over every rock” to determine the source of the leaks. 

But even as the leak causes friction between allies and partners, experts don’t see it as having long-term implications for western unity.

The Ukrainian diplomat pointed out that as good as U.S. intelligence is, it can’t predict the future, pointing to the successful defense of Kyiv against Russia’s February invasion despite Biden administration officials warning the capital would fall in three days.

Some of the reported intelligence highlights Ukraine’s military shortfalls and casts doubt on its ability to decisively recapture territory from Russia in a counteroffensive that is expected to launch in the spring or summer. 

While Gerstell thinks short-term ramifications are inevitable, he doesn’t see long-term strategic implications from the leak.

“Most countries recognize that spy agencies spy on each other, that’s just what they do. Everyone knows it. No one likes to talk about it publicly [but] you’re not supposed to get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.”

And Catherine Sendak, director of Transatlantic Defense and Security for the Center for European Policy Analysis, also doesn’t think the leaks threaten western unity regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine.

What’s important now for the U.S. is “consistent, clear communication” with allies and partners on the latest findings of the Pentagon and Justice Department investigations and “mitigation efforts being put in place to prevent further leaks,” she added. 

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) sounded a similar note after receiving an unclassified briefing from the Biden administration on the leaks. He said he learned little during the briefing about how the leaks occurred and how the U.S. can stop future occurrences. 

“And this is pretty key for our allies, right? You know, we rely on our allies to share intelligence and they need to trust us right now,” he said. 

“For all the soothing tones that I heard from the secretary of state, if I were an ally right now, I would be wondering whether the United States can keep their secrets safe.”