Defense & National Security — World on high alert for Russian false flags

Fears are rising that a major event on Ukrainian soil in the near future will be a Russian “false flag” operation as Moscow looks to regain momentum amid a successful counteroffensive from Kyiv.  

We’ll break down Russia’s most recent accusations and the Western response, plus details of President Biden’s meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the White House. 

This is Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. For The Hill, I’m Ellen Mitchell.

Fears of a Russian ‘false flag’ attack are rising

U.S. officials on Tuesday continued to vehemently reject Russia’s claims that Ukraine was planning to use a “dirty bomb” on its own land, allegations seen as a pretext for Moscow to escalate the war. 

The Kremlin assertions — which first came from Russia’s defense minister on Sunday and were repeated Monday and Tuesday by other Moscow officials — come on the heels of warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia is planning to blow up a huge dam near Kherson and blame it on Ukrainians. 

Pushback: Now, with Russia seemingly on the brink of losing its hold on the major city of Kherson, Western officials and experts alike are pushing back on suggestions that Ukraine could be behind any devastating attack on its own land. 

“The warnings about Ukraine’s alleged readiness to use dirty nuclear weapons … should be considered an attempt to blackmail,” said Piotr Żochowski, a senior fellow at the Warsaw-based OSW Centre for Eastern Studies. 

Ripped from the playbook: Żochowski said such Russian threats, which seek to drastically escalate the conflict, are an often-used tactic from Moscow meant to “sow panic in the West” and an indication that its ground forces are struggling to repel Ukrainian attacks.   

The U.S. has been warning since before the war started that Russia may attempt a false flag, meant to misuse or hide the identity of a military force to justify a response. The Biden administration warned ahead of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 that the Kremlin might fabricate a reason for its invasion, including a staged attack on Russians by Ukrainian forces.  

What is a dirty bomb?: The unconventional munition, meant to spread radioactive material using traditional explosives, is not meant to eliminate a military target but rather incite fear and panic among a population.    

Earlier claims: Russia since earlier this week has claimed that Ukraine is conspiring to use such a weapon. Though it has provided no evidence, Moscow officials claim Ukrainian scientific institutions hold the technology and its government plans to use it.  

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly made such an allegation on a Sunday call with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, though the Pentagon has declined to confirm the specifics of the conversation. 

Roundly dismissed: Russia’s assertions have been roundly dismissed by Kyiv and its Western allies, which believe Moscow could carry out such a detonation in Ukraine itself and use it as a false flag operation. 

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Tuesday that “from a U.S. standpoint, the allegations that Ukraine is building a dirty bomb are false,” adding that should Russia move to use such a weapon, “there would be consequences.” 

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Biden talks Iran, antisemitism with Israeli president 

President Biden hosted Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the White House on Wednesday to discuss threats posed by Iran as concern grows over its strengthening relationship with Russia. 

Biden emphasized to Herzog his pledge to ensure Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon. The White House expressed concern on Wednesday that Russia may be advising Iran on best practices to manage protests as the Iranian government has violently cracked down on women-led anti-government protests. 

Also discussed: Biden and Herzog discussed the new maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Biden called it “a historic breakthrough” that’s “going to create new hope and economic opportunities for the people in Lebanon, and it enhances stability and security for the people of Israel.” 

The agreement between Lebanon and Israel establishes a sea boundary between the two countries. The border between them has been monitored by United Nations peacekeepers for over 40 years. 

Biden’s energy envoy traveled to Beirut on Wednesday as part of the final steps in securing the agreement. 

A condemnation: Biden in the meeting condemned antisemitism, which is in the spotlight in the U.S. recently amid the backlash and fallout over antisemitic remarks by the rapper Ye. The president highlighted the U.S. support for Israel’s further regional integration into the Arab world. 

“Additionally, Biden condemned the persistent scourge of anti-Semitism, including anti-Israel bias in international fora,” according to the White House. “In that regard, the President reaffirmed the United States’ strong opposition to the open-ended and biased nature of the UN Commission of Inquiry established in May 2021, which continues a longstanding pattern of unfairly singling out Israel and does nothing to establish conditions for peace.” 

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ON TAP FOR TOMORROW

• Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies will hold a virtual talk on “Breaking the Nuclear Taboo after 77 Years: Are Putin’s Threats Credible, Crazy, or Just Psywar?” at 5:30 a.m.   
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will hold the 2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, with discussions on “Can the Russo-Ukrainian War End Without Nuclear Use?” and “Tick, Tick, Book? Presidential Decision-making in a Nuclear Attack,” at 9 a.m.    
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies will host a discussion on “U.S. cybersecurity,” with National Cyber Director Chris Inglis and Anne Neuberger, deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, at 10 a.m.   

WHAT WE’RE READING

• RFK grandson says he just returned from fighting in Ukraine   
• US issues new sanctions as women-led Iran protests hit 40 days   
• Biden envoy to oversee signing of Lebanon, Israel maritime deal   
• White House unveils cyber plan for chemical sector   
• Zelensky: ‘We will definitely liberate Crimea   
• The Hill: Opinion: A template for Russia’s war in Ukraine: The ‘Winter War’   
• The Hill: Opinion: National Security Strategy: India is a growing world power and partner 

Well, that’s it for today! Check out The Hill’s Defense and National Security pages for the latest coverage. See you tomorrow!