The GOP’s impeachment ‘prisoner’s dilemma’

Republican senators’ upcoming Donald Trump impeachment vote is a variation of the classic prisoner’s dilemma game. They’re incentivized to cooperate on impeachment, thus taking a major step toward loosening Trump’s harmful grip on their party. But if they fail, many could face a reckoning from the GOP electorate.

So they’re facing a nearly impossible task of threading the needle between maintaining conservative support and stopping the nationally unpopular former president from running in 2024. And with a new poll from The Hill showing 64 percent of Republicans would leave their party for a new Trump-led party, this is no longer a containable threat. An unvanquished Trump could turn the GOP into a third party overnight. 

Therefore, each Republican’s optimal scenario is voting “nay” on conviction while at least 17 GOP colleagues vote “aye.” This would prompt a simple majority vote to ban Trump from ever holding elected office again.  

Of course, this scenario is largely a pipe dream, as it would require nearly a third of Republican senators to sacrifice their own political well-being for the good of the party. The recent tabling of Senator Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) procedural motion on the constitutionality of impeaching an ex-president was a precursor to the impeachment vote. Only five Republicans joined the Senate’s 48 Democrats and two independents: Susan Collins (Me.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitt Romney (Utah), Ben Sasse (Neb.) and Pat Toomey (Pa.).

Other potential GOP defectors on impeachment include Richard Burr (N.C.) and Rob Portman (Ohio), neither of whom are running for reelection in 2022.  Portman even acknowledged that the Paul motion was “a totally different issue” than the impeachment vote. 

The highest stakes rest with the dozen or more GOP senators perceived as presidential hopefuls in 2024 or beyond — including Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), Tom Cotton (Ark.), Ted Cruz (Texas), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Rick Scott (Fla.), Tim Scott (S.C.), John Thune (S.D.), and also Sasse.  

Could any Republican win the 2024 primary after issuing the harshest condemnation of someone 82 percent of Republicans still support? Sasse is taking a stand. Perhaps one or two others — particularly those planning to wait eight to 12 years — might wager that Trump’s intra-party popularity will wane by the time they run for higher office. But it’s a tough sell given the party’s efforts to destroy the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach. 

Of the remaining 11 GOP senators up for reelection in 2022, the relatively vulnerable Ron Johnson (Wis.) is in the toughest spot, should he even decide to run. Historically one of the top 20-25 most conservative senators, in 2019 he pivoted leftward on votes — a hedge as he continues to embrace Trump as tightly as any Republican.  It would be shocking if he abandons Trump now.

Among the remaining senators facing reelection in 2024, only Mike Braun (Ind.) hails from a state that’s not heavily red, though he has little to gain by convicting Trump and risking a bloody primary fight. As for 16 other senators up in 2026, Thom Tillis (N.C.) — and to a lesser extent Steve Daines (Mont.) and John Cornyn (Texas) — might need to answer for their vote eventually.  But no one else will be imperiled if they play it safe and vote “nay.” 

So we should assume Republicans won’t cooperate to rid themselves of a still ambitious Trump. Most are in political survival mode, placing self-interest above the interests of their party and the country. 

But if in one or two years Trump announces he’s running again — whether for the Republican nomination or as the leader of a new party — many GOP senators will wish they’d stopped him when they had the chance. Because political self-interest isn’t just about winning elections. It’s also about wielding power. And Republicans won’t be any closer to retaking power in Washington if they let Trump imprison them.

B.J. Rudell is a longtime political strategist, former associate director for Duke University’s Center for Politics and recent North Carolina Democratic Party operative. In a career encompassing stints on Capitol Hill, on presidential campaigns, in a newsroom, in classrooms, and for a consulting firm, he has authored three books and has shared political insights across all media platforms, including for CNN and Fox News.