Young progressive voters, the backbone and the future of the Democratic Party, are at an increasing risk of turning against the party wholescale each day the war in Gaza continues.
Foreign policy rarely tops the issues people rank when casting their votes unless something has gone horribly wrong. But this is one of those times when U.S. involvement in multiple wars abroad, especially in Gaza, is shifting more people to prioritize foreign policy in their 2024 issues of importance.
Over the last few years, despite an onslaught of obstructionism by MAGA-supporting Republicans, the Biden administration and the Democrats have delivered or made concrete progress on a wide swath of issues that are important to young progressives: from climate actions to gun regulations, reproductive rights protections, student loan cancellations and more.
While the degree to whether what has been done has gone far enough or fast enough is debatable, the direction is undeniable. It is a complete turnaround from the years when Donald Trump and the Republicans were in charge.
Despite the accomplishments of this administration, visceral opposition to the U.S. government’s support of the war in Gaza risks turning young progressives into single-issue voters. To be clear, young progressives are not likely to cross over to vote for Trump, they will simply opt out of the election or vote third-party even with the knowledge that Trump will be worse.
Right now, among young progressives, there’s an overwhelming sense of general disillusionment with our dysfunctional political system that repeatedly derails any substantial progress and denies them a choice beyond the binary.
The 18-34 age group has spent their lives living through the global war on terror, the Iraq War, the Great Recession, a global pandemic, routine mass shootings and massive wealth inequality. To see the party they support and elect to office pursue a policy of months-long unconditional support for the Israeli government’s invasion of Gaza is having devastating effects on voter enthusiasm.
And Democrats don’t just need young progressives to vote, they need them to knock on doors, phone bank and mobilize their friends and families offline and online. Social media platforms have fundamentally shifted how voters receive information and perceive politics. Young progressives, especially young progressive activists, serve as important leaders, messengers and validators in their respective social networks.
This is why over multiple cycles, Democratic campaigns have rightly invested in developing and nurturing this distributed relational organizing to much success. As effective as it has been in turning out votes for Democrats, the more than 100,000 “uncommitted” votes in the Michigan primary shows that the opposite also holds true.
According to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, more than 40 million eligible Gen Z (18-27) voters could make up one-fifth of the entire U.S. electorate this year. When you combine them with the number of eligible younger millennial voters, you have a population poised to grab a substantial portion of the 2024 electorate.
More than 70 percent of those eligible young people are likely voters. Among that group, Democrats are outperforming the Republicans by double digits. That’s because on issues that are most important to young people such as climate, gun control, the economy and reproductive rights — the Biden administration and the Democrats are aligned with young voters’ views.
Conversely, a second Trump term will leave a drastically different legacy on these issues for potentially decades to come. We know what a second Trump term will look like because The Heritage Foundation alongside more than 50 conservative think tanks have come together to plan the right-wing agenda with Project 2025. Part of it includes their 900-page policy book that calls for a federal abortion ban, removes protections against LGBTQ people, dismantles the Environmental Protection Agency, and guts the social safety net, among many other policy items antithetical to the values of young progressives.
Not to mention that a second Trump administration will also be in lockstep with the most extreme right-wing elements of the Israeli government — a fact openly acknowledged by a member of the current Israeli wartime Cabinet.
Despite this fundamental threat, young progressives are increasingly at risk of sitting this election out. History tells us when foreign policy is a top issue for voters, an intense anti-war movement is an electoral force to be reckoned with. Abstention or defection from young progressives could prove fatal to Democrats up and down the ballot.
A policy change on Gaza would likely bring President Biden even more political benefits. There is broad popular support for a permanent cease-fire beyond young progressives.
Core Democratic constituencies ranging from labor unions like the United Auto Workers and American Federation of Teachers to hundreds of Black pastors have called for a cease-fire. In Congress, 137 Democrats in the House and 26 Democrats in the Senate have called for a cease-fire. What’s more, a Data for Progress survey shows that 67 percent of all likely voters — 77 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of independents and 59 percent of Republicans — support a permanent cease-fire.
In this turbocharged moment, Democrats cannot afford to be counterproductive by scolding, dismissing or guilting young progressives into falling in line without delivering a significant policy shift. The recent rhetorical breaks from the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s extreme right-wing government is welcome progress but not enough as long as the free flow of U.S. weapons to Israel and the restrictions against humanitarian aid from Israel persists.
The 2024 elections are shaping up to be a tough, close race and Democrats will need young progressives to be out in full force. But right now, there are visible cracks in the winning coalition that can be glued back together.
November is still eight months away — on a campaign timeline, multiple lifetimes away. And the contrast between Trump and the Republicans on issues important to young progressives cannot be clearer. But the path to patching up the coalition to victory in November begins with calling for a permanent cease-fire, securing the release of hostages, conditioning military aid to Israel and delivering ample humanitarian aid to people in Gaza.
Yint Hmu is the campaigns manager at Win Without War.